Whanganui Chronicle
  • Whanganui Chronicle home
  • Latest news
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Residential property listings
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology

Locations

  • Taranaki
  • National Park
  • Whakapapa
  • Ohakune
  • Raetihi
  • Taihape
  • Marton
  • Feilding
  • Palmerston North

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

Weather

  • New Plymouth
  • Whanganui
  • Palmertson North
  • Levin

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Whanganui Chronicle / Business

Great divide on kiwi dollar

By Tina Morrison
NZME. regionals·
16 Feb, 2016 03:30 AM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Graeme Wheeler Reserve Bank governor.

Graeme Wheeler Reserve Bank governor.

Analysts are split on the direction of the New Zealand dollar this week as they weigh whether local data is likely to prompt Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler to keep interest rates on hold or lean towards future cuts.

The kiwi may trade between 64.50 US cents and 68.25 cents this week, according to a BusinessDesk survey of eight currency analysts.

Four bet the currency would remain largely unchanged while two picked it would rise and two that it would fall. It recently traded at 66.43 US cents.

In his annual scene setter speech earlier this month, Governor Wheeler signalled that he won't rush to cut interest rates and is prepared to look beyond weak headline inflation.

This week is set to highlight divisions in the local economy, with record tourism expected to deliver strong fourth-quarter retail sales, while weakness is likely in inflation expectations and in dairy prices, the country's largest export commodity.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"There are a number of local events that will be closely watched as they have the potential to influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate outlook," ASB Bank economist Kim Mundy said in a note.

For retail sales data this morning, "a strong result will likely make the RBNZ comfortable in its view that the official cash rate can remain on hold, in the near term at least," Mundy said. "On the other hand, inflation expectations (this afternoon) and GlobalDairyTrade (auction tonight) may throw some doubt over the RBNZ's resolve to keep rates on hold."

The NZX futures market shows the price for New Zealand's key dairy product, whole milk powder, looks set to fall 10 percent, following a 10.4 percent drop at the previous fortnightly auction, which "is also likely to cause some concern for the RBNZ", Mundy said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Fonterra Cooperative Group, the world's largest dairy exporter and New Zealand's biggest company, last month cut its 2015/16 forecast milk payout for farmers to $4.15 per kilogram of milk solids, from a previous estimate of $4.60/kgMS.

Should prices decline again at auction this week, ASB will likely lower its milk price forecast for the current season and next season, Mundy said. ASB currently expects $4.10/kgMS for this season, while ANZ Bank New Zealand has reduced its estimate to $3.95/kgMS, and Westpac Banking Corp has cut its forecast to $4/kgMS.

Musings from other central banks also have the potential to sway the kiwi this week.

The US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes to its last meeting on Thursday morning New Zealand time, which will be closely watched for hints as to the pace of future rate hikes. Australia's central bank will today publish the minutes to its most recent meeting while the European Central Bank releases its most recent meeting minutes early on Friday morning.

Discover more

Don't starve yourself to pay your mortgage

15 Feb 04:00 AM

Bleak forecast for dairy farmers

16 Feb 03:00 AM

Low prices increase retail spend

17 Feb 03:00 AM

Fletcher lifts first-half profits 51pc

18 Feb 03:00 AM

Central bank officials from the US, Australia, Europe, the UK and Japan are also scheduled to make public speeches this week, which could give hints to future policy.

Key data releases this week include Chinese trade and inflation, Australian employment, German business sentiment, UK inflation and employment, and US manufacturing and inflation.

- BusinessDesk

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Premium
Opinion

Property Insider: Foodstuffs' $380m expansion with new Pak'nSave sites in the works

24 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
Property

All rentals must meet five Healthy Homes standards by July 1

17 Jun 11:00 PM
Whanganui Chronicle

Sarjeant Gallery visitor numbers revealed

08 Jun 05:00 PM

Kaibosh gets a clean-energy boost in the fight against food waste

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Property Insider: Foodstuffs' $380m expansion with new Pak'nSave sites in the works

Property Insider: Foodstuffs' $380m expansion with new Pak'nSave sites in the works

24 Jun 12:00 AM

The biggest is a new application for a $100m Pak'nSave on reclaimed land in Takapuna.

Premium
All rentals must meet five Healthy Homes standards by July 1

All rentals must meet five Healthy Homes standards by July 1

17 Jun 11:00 PM
Sarjeant Gallery visitor numbers revealed

Sarjeant Gallery visitor numbers revealed

08 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Govt considering 'demolition' for Chateau Tongariro, deemed a ‘fiscal risk’ in Budget 2025

Govt considering 'demolition' for Chateau Tongariro, deemed a ‘fiscal risk’ in Budget 2025

02 Jun 05:00 PM
Engage and explore one of the most remote places on Earth in comfort and style
sponsored

Engage and explore one of the most remote places on Earth in comfort and style

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Whanganui Chronicle e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Whanganui Chronicle
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • NZME Events
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP