Whanganui Chronicle
  • Whanganui Chronicle home
  • Latest news
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Residential property listings
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology

Locations

  • Taranaki
  • National Park
  • Whakapapa
  • Ohakune
  • Raetihi
  • Taihape
  • Marton
  • Feilding
  • Palmerston North

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

Weather

  • New Plymouth
  • Whanganui
  • Palmertson North
  • Levin

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Whanganui Chronicle

Gwynne Dyer: Italian coalition's agenda threat to EU stability

By Gwynne Dyer
Columnist·Whanganui Chronicle·
31 May, 2018 04:16 AM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Five-Stars Movement (M5S) leader Luigi Di Maio salutes the crowd during a rally in Naples on Tuesday. PHOTO / AP

Five-Stars Movement (M5S) leader Luigi Di Maio salutes the crowd during a rally in Naples on Tuesday. PHOTO / AP

From the European Union's point of view Brexit, the impending departure of the United Kingdom, is a pity but not a disaster.

Britain never joined the euro, the common currency used by most EU members, and the English were always the awkward squad in the EU's march towards an "ever closer union".

However, the defection of Italy could threaten the EU's survival.

Two-and-a-half months after the election on March 4, Italy is finally getting a new government. It is a bizarre coalition of the Five-Star Movement (M5S), a populist party of the left, and the League, a populist party of the far right. Moderates, both in Italy and in the wider EU, reassure themselves with the thought that it cannot survive, let alone cooperate, but they may be wrong.

Read more: Gwynne Dyer: Middle Eastern rivals put on theatre of the grotesque
Gwynne Dyer: Revisiting the classless society
Gwynne Dyer: Political theatre of the absurd

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There is actually a good chance that the new coalition will survive, at least for a while, because it is based on the ancient principle that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". And the enemy the two parties have in common is the European Union.

Until recently the M5S was promising to hold a referendum on Italy's membership in the euro, while the League was advocating outright withdrawal from the EU.

They have backed away from those extreme policies for the moment, but what they are promising to do will nevertheless bring them into direct and severe confrontation with the European Union.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The coalition's "contract for change", a joint programme agreed earlier this month, is a patchwork quilt of both parties' favourite policies. It includes the M5S pledge of a minimum basic income of €780 ($917) a month for the poorest Italians, and the League's demand for a flat tax of 15 per cent on the incomes of middle-class Italians, and only 20 per cent even for the rich.

This will doubtless please a great many Italian voters (the whole point), but it involves an extra $132 billion per year of deficit spending, and this blatantly violates the EU budget rules designed to keep the euro currency stable.

The Italian government's foreign debt is already so big that only the implicit guarantee of eurozone membership keeps its borrowing costs down.

A few more years of Italian over-spending, however, and the stability of the euro itself will come into question, so the EU will fight very hard to block the coalition's spending plans.

Discover more

Jay Kuten: Dignity means having choice

30 May 07:00 AM
Agribusiness

Banks facing hit from M.bovis cattle disease

30 May 04:32 AM

Frank Greenall: Nature's call on dairying

30 May 07:00 PM
Entertainment

The staggering cost of axing Roseanne

30 May 07:37 AM

A confrontation is also likely to erupt over illegal immigration, with the new coalition government pushing for a change in the Dublin regulation that requires refugees to seek asylum in the first EU country they reach.

For the great majority of the refugees who make it across the Mediterranean each year, that first country is Italy, and most Italians want the burden shared more fairly among all the EU countries.

That would seem to be enough dry kindling to get the fire going, and yet an open fight between the Five Star-League coalition and the EU will probably be postponed for a while. It will get kicked down the road because the EU needs all the unity it can muster to resist the US assault on global trade.

The problem is not just the steep US tariffs on a variety of EU products that are due to kick in soon. The bigger issue is rapidly becoming how to protect European banks and companies trading with Iran from being forced to pull out of Iran by Trump's promised "secondary sanctions".

That's a sovereignty question, and the other big EU countries will bend over backward to keep Italy in line until this issue is settled.

In the longer run, however, a major confrontation between Italy and the rest of the EU is coming if the coalition government lasts.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

For the EU to lose first the United Kingdom and then Italy would certainly look like carelessness, but it should not be seen as an inevitable event.

The narrow Brexit victory in the UK (52-48 per cent) was driven by a generation of English nationalists (Little Englanders) who are rapidly ageing out, while the great majority of the under-35s voted "remain".

The great majority of Italians want to stay in the EU, but their general discontent led many to vote for parties that are (among other things) anti-EU.

Some new EU members that spent almost half a century under Communist rule and very little time as democracies, like Poland and Hungary, are back under authoritarian rule, and the disease seems to be spreading.

It could turn into a perfect storm that unravels the European Union, but cheer up - at least Europe would recover some of its fine old traditions, like picturesque dictatorships and sporadic wars.

■Gwynne Dyer's new book, "Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work)", was published last month by Scribe in Australia, New Zealand, the US, Canada, and the UK.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui Chronicle

Good news for pilot academy as planes cleared to fly

Whanganui Chronicle

Wills Week promotes charitable giving

Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui backs new water services body with Ruapehu


Sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Whanganui Chronicle

Good news for pilot academy as planes cleared to fly
Whanganui Chronicle

Good news for pilot academy as planes cleared to fly

The Whanganui academy's training certification remains suspended.

16 Jul 04:00 AM
Wills Week promotes charitable giving
Whanganui Chronicle

Wills Week promotes charitable giving

16 Jul 03:00 AM
Whanganui backs new water services body with Ruapehu
Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui backs new water services body with Ruapehu

15 Jul 09:15 PM


Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky
Sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

06 Jul 09:47 PM
NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Whanganui Chronicle e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Whanganui Chronicle
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • NZME Events
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP