Northland teacher shortage forecast to persist despite national gains

The Ministry of Education’s Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Projection report shows the region is expected to face ongoing teacher shortages. Photo / 123RF

Northland schools could remain short of teachers for years to come, even as the national outlook begins to improve.

New projections from the Ministry of Education’s Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Projection report show the region is expected to face ongoing shortages of both primary and secondary school teachers.

By 2026 Northland could be missing about 70 primary teachers and 50 secondary teachers, according to the report.

The report predicts the national picture will stabilise, with a small surplus of primary school teachers possible in coming years. However, it warned shortages are likely to persist in several regions, including Northland.

The projections suggest Northland’s primary teacher shortage could sit at about 4.5%, while the secondary schooling shortfall could be around 4%.

Education leaders in Northland say the numbers reflect a reality many schools in the region have been dealing with for years.

NZ Rural Schools Leadership Association president Andrew King said recruiting new teachers was hard across the board, but particularly difficult for small, rural and isolated schools.

“Some large city centres, such as Auckland, are struggling but you will find rural and small schools are too, in most regions, because of their distance and perceptions from the profession that you are better off teaching in a larger school because you have more support.”

He said the shortages impacted both students and teachers.

“Because you do not necessarily have the same teacher for the whole year and likewise you might constantly have changing teachers. Children need consistency and a professional relationship with a teacher that they have known for a while to optimise learning. Knowing our learners is a crucial component to their success and in achieving educational outcomes for tamariki.

“Children are missing out on all the support they deserve to optimise their time learning in school as with a shortage, teachers have less time with children and children need quality time with a consistent teacher day-to-day.”

Whangārei Principals Association president Sally Wilson said many teachers are lost to the tensions of the profession.

“The grit and stamina needed presently is tested with ever-changing demands. Northland is an incredible place to teach; we have so much we can be proud of. It is a region steeped in history, hardship and deprivation. In an ideal world we would be overflowing with supports, some schools would have better facilities, learning support assistants would be there in numbers to support all who needs it ... however, often you are asking one person to navigate all of this. I would suggest that would have impact on lack of teachers and principals.”

Kamo School, where she is principal, endured shortages in 2024 that resulted in the school needing to increase class sizes to cover having a missing member of the team.

“It increased teacher workload with extra students, it changed the dynamic for some time in our school and teachers had to work extra hard to maintain our school values … it was demanding.”

The ministry’s modelling shows national demand for primary teachers is expected to remain relatively stable through to 2028, while demand for secondary teachers is projected to stay slightly higher.

However, the report noted national figures do not always reflect what schools experience locally. Even where overall supply improves, some areas are likely to continue to struggle with recruitment and retention of staff.

MoE deputy secretary for education workforce Anna Welanyk said the ongoing forecast shortages in Northland are based on the ministry’s understanding of what is likely to happen in the future, based on the modelling of historical data.

The data shows Northland is currently experiencing more teacher supply challenges relative to other regions.

“Northland schools and kura, like all schools in New Zealand, are responsible for recruitment of the staff they need. Northland schools have access to a range of initiatives that are designed to attract and retain teachers, depending on the school’s individual circumstances.”

She said Northland schools have access to a range of initiatives that are designed to attract and retain teachers and they continue to review the effectiveness of current programmes and establish new ones to address persistent attraction and recruitment challenges.