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Home / Northland Age

Experts reflect on two years of Covid and what's next for Northland

Northland Age
21 Mar, 2022 06:03 PM4 mins to read

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Tomorrow marks two years since Northland and the rest of the country went into alert level 4 lockdown. Photo / Supplied

Tomorrow marks two years since Northland and the rest of the country went into alert level 4 lockdown. Photo / Supplied

Tomorrow marks two years since Northland and the rest of the country entered into strict lockdown following the introduction of Covid-19 to Aotearoa New Zealand.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's announcement signalled the start of the country's elimination approach to Covid-19, giving two days' notice before collectively launching into an Alert Level 4 lockdown.

Looking back at the first two years of the country's pandemic journey, two of the country's experts have summed up their reaction to the two-year milestone and what they expect next for Northland and beyond.

Professor Michael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago, said his major conclusion about the past two years was that taking a highly proactive public health response to the pandemic had given us some of the best health, wellbeing, and economic outcomes seen globally.

"New Zealand was the first country to publish an elimination strategy for responding to the Covid-19 pandemic," Baker said.

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"This response minimised harms to the population and economy during the first 18 months of the pandemic until effective vaccines became widely available.

"Since then, New Zealand has shifted its response in a highly strategic way to suppression and now mitigation.

"This strategic approach has given the country the lowest Covid-19 mortality in the OECD and increased life expectancy."

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Baker expected the Omicron pandemic wave would soon start to recede and as such, it would be appropriate to ease many pandemic control measures, such as border entry restrictions and the traffic light system.

He also believed Northland's Omicron outbreak may have peaked, but warned the worst may be yet to come with regards to deaths and long-term Covid-19.

He said it appeared Northland's peak occurred about a week ago with numbers fluctuating since then.

"It peaked in Auckland about a week earlier than in Northland and while we can never be totally sure about these things, the trend [in Northland] is heading down," he said.

The information, however, is reliant on people self-reporting positive RAT results because 95 per cent of cases were being found through the test, Baker said.

This week a Northern Region Health Co-ordination Centre spokesperson said it was estimated about half of all positive cases were being discovered in Auckland and Northland.

"Estimating the true prevalence of infections versus identified cases is very difficult," they said.

"Our current best estimates, based on our patterns of cases compared to overseas experience and looking at our testing coverage, are that we are accounting for approximately half of all actual cases."

While Baker said the peak may be nearing an end for Northland, the numbers of hospitalised Covid-19 cases would probably rise and more deaths were likely in the region.

"That's what happens when we look at how Omicron has developed overseas, and it's happening the same way here," Baker said.

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"So while the peak may be nearly over, the worst may be yet to come in terms of long Covid issues and deaths."

At the same time, he said New Zealand needed to maintain a set of key control measures, a "pandemic toolkit", that could be turned up or down depending on the future evolution of the pandemic.

"This is also the time to develop and enhance our public health infrastructure, including an effective Public Health Agency and Māori Health Authority [under way]," Baker said.

Dr Rhys Jones, public health physician and senior lecturer in Māori Health, University of Auckland, said he wrote about grave concerns many Māori had in relation to New Zealand's response to Covid-19.

He said he and many others were concerned the pandemic would reproduce racist outcomes and end up being another chapter in the long history of health-related Treaty breaches.

"Those concerns were well founded – while there is clearly a lot to be grateful for in New Zealand's approach to the pandemic, it has well and truly fallen short when it comes to equity and honouring Te Tiriti," Jones said.

"The successes have come from following an evidence-based public health approach, and from enabling and supporting communities to protect themselves.

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"The failures have come from ignoring the science and expert advice, including decisions that appear to have been influenced more by business lobby groups than by public health experts and community advocates."

Jones added an important lesson was that equity had to be central in every decision, and the approach had to be based on mana motuhake (Māori self-sovereignty).

"There's actually a really simple message for government – listen to Māori and Pasifika experts and communities, listen to disabled experts and communities and listen to other structurally oppressed groups," he said.

"Then do exactly what they say and invest the necessary resources and support to make it happen."

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