The indisputable fact, unquantifiable as it might be, is that many people in the Kaitaia area drive to Kerikeri to save money, and to a lesser extent perhaps to take advantage of a more flexible timetable. Air New Zealand has denied that in the past too, but it happens, a lot. If the fare structure for Kaitaia was more realistic, it is highly likely that the plane would be better patronised.
Not that it's doing badly. Sixteen people disembarked in Kaitaia last Wednesday morning, and every time the writer has used the service it has been well patronised.
Mayor John Carter has asked Air New Zealand how much of the $1 million its regional services are reportedly losing every month is attributable to Kaitaia, and has been told he won't be getting an answer. Funny that.
So is this a justifiable commercial decision? Hard to say. It behoves Air New Zealand to achieve the best financial result it can, and at a time when airlines around the world are struggling to remain solvent it seems to be doing very well. If some services are losing money then it has the right to review them. However, it should cut services only when there is no way of making them viable, or at least not overly costly, and it is far from clear that that's the case in Kaitaia. And then there is the element of social obligation.
That obligation arises from the fact that 53 per cent of Air New Zealand is owned by us. It is, as John Carter said last week, our airline. And it isn't a matter of charity. As a company with the people of New Zealand as the majority shareholder, it shouldn't need telling that transport infrastructure is vital to any community's future, even survival.
The loss of this service isn't about the inconvenience of having to drive to Kerikeri. It's about the future of Kaitaia and the very Far North. The lack of an air service will have a hugely negative effect on the community's ability to attract the investment and the skilled people it needs.
People who have options regarding where they are going to live and invest look for a number of things. One is health services. Another is transport. The inability to provide either of those can reduce a community's desirability drastically.
One also has to ask whether this decision was made a long time ago, or more recently, without consideration of the huge tourism investment taking place on the Karikari Peninsula. If the thousands of Chinese tourists we have been led to expect any time now become a reality they will want to fly here, an influx that one would have expected to have Air New Zealand salivating.
It is heartening that Tauranga's Sunair was out of the blocks within minutes of Air New Zealand making its announcement. No disrespect to Sunair, but that could well make a good Plan B, if Air New Zealand sticks to its guns. Even if it does, it is not out of the question that a successful Sunair service would be countered by a company that has a history of not wanting anyone else to have what it has discarded.
John Carter, the FNDC and FNHL are right to express a willingness to talk to Sunair, but the first job is to persuade Air New Zealand to change its mind. There is time to do that, and there is no doubt that a good case can be made. Hopefully Northland MP Mike Sabin believes that.
Mr Sabin has said he understands Air New Zealand's commercial realities, but is disappointed that the airline did not engage with the Far North to look at alternative options for making a 50-seat plane viable. He had also been reassured to hear that Air New Zealand would remain open to re-instigating the service if demand supported that.
So far so good, but more troublingly he had been heartened to hear of Sunair's interest in taking over from Air New Zealand. He has undertaken to work with the district council, FNHL and Sunair to "help see the transition through". It's a bit soon to be talking like that.
Kaitaia has been here before, and still has an Air New Zealand service (and a better one than was offered a few years ago). There is a lot of table thumping and politicking to be done before anyone concedes defeat, welcome and genuine as Sunair's interest might well prove to be. At this stage though Mr Sabin should have his sights set fair and square on Air New Zealand. That is the right thing to do, and it is also in his own best interests.
Mr Sabin clearly has faith in Northland, of which the very Far North is a part. He believes it can form much better economically than it has in the past. Many would agree with him, but 2014 hasn't been a stellar year.
First the government began showing signs of reneging on its road repair funding promise, then SpecSavers told its furthest north customers that they could drive to Kerikeri to have their eyes tested, and now Air New Zealand's given them the same message should they want to fly somewhere.
Small towns' fortunes might wax and wane a little, but the ebb tide seems to be taking hold in Kaitaia, and Mr Sabin should be looking to stop the rot rather than welcoming a lesser alternative.
As others have noted, the MP's party is doing him no favours, and it's time now to show that he can bite as well as bark. He should be leading the charge, not bracing himself for capitulation.
