Mr Little has accepted that Labour is unlikely to win on March 28. He said at his candidate's campaign launch that National could pin a blue ribbon on a donkey and take Northland, which might well be true, although there have been signs of late that it is taking more notice of us now than in the past.
Much of that is probably thanks to Mike Sabin, who did a great deal of work last term in laying the foundations for an economic make-over in the region. Mr Sabin's bid to identify the electorate's strengths, and the factors that were hindering achievement of its potential, promised real progress, various statistics over the last 12 months or so suggesting that he was making some headway (although they could have at least in part been the result of a national economy that is emerging from the global financial crisis with more enthusiasm than those of many other countries).
At the end of the day it is a growing economy that is going to resolve issues like roading and transport (although there's a bit of the chicken and egg there), housing, household incomes and unemployment. That's not going to happen overnight, and whoever wins on March 28 will hopefully build on the foundation that Mr Sabin appears to have provided.
We also have two new growth strategies to pin our hopes on. There might be a long way to go before we get a fair shake of the stick, but perhaps we are not quite as out of sight, out of mind as we have traditionally been.
The champion opportunist is without doubt Winston Peters, who has made much over the last week of the fact that he is Northland born and bred, that he knows the electorate well and what troubles it. We might ask though what he's done for us in his 37 years in Parliament. He's certainly had his chances.
He was a member of the National Cabinet in 1990/91, deputy Prime Minister and treasurer in 1996/98, and Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Labour-led government from 2005 to 2008. He has not been without influence, but little, if any, of that influence seems to have been wielded on our behalf. So what's different now?
What's different is that if he wins on March 28, in an electorate that his party hasn't even bothered contesting in the last three general elections, he will change the balance of power. Who will benefit from that shift? Winston Peters. Electing him as the local MP won't bring down the National-led government, but it will mean that National would no longer get by solely with the unquestioning support of ACT. It would need to work harder to cultivate the support of UnitedFuture (whose leader Peter Dunne is already pondering the potential for a re-negotiation of the concessions he said he made following last year's general election) and the Maori Party. If that wasn't successful, it would need the support of NZ First to continue governing. Winston wins.
That supposes that if National loses Northland it won't pick up another list seat (based on last year's general election), which wasn't clear at the time of writing, but the voters are being relegated to a minor role in all this.
We will be urged to vote in our own best interests, but in reality we will be wooed by politicians with very different motives. We will be pawns in a game that potentially offers the biggest prize to a politician who portrays himself as our friend, if not saviour, but whose purpose is entirely selfish.
Perhaps it would be in our best interests to display an opportunist streak of our own, to make the most of our unexpected strategic significance. Suddenly all political eyes are on us, and it would be a shame to let the chance of gaining from that slip by. Mr Little is right when he says we have the chance to tell National we are tired of being taken for granted, and that our loyalty can no longer be regarded as a given.
We should also be thinking about who can deliver on their promises, unless we are prepared to play the long game. Hobson, as we were then, benefited handsomely by backing Social Credit in 1966, not because Vern Cracknell achieved much but because National bought us back three years later. There might be some value in repeating that rebellion, if we can stomach having Winston Peters as our local MP for the next two and a half years, and if we can live with possibly destabilising the current government to a significant degree.
But if Winston Peters had any plan to improve our lot he could and would have done it years ago. He is more interested now in what we can do for him than what he can do for us. We should be under no illusion about that, and not expect any payback until 2017, when National will no doubt bend over backwards to regain our affections. Mind you, it will be pushing it to win a fourth term in 2017, so we might be waiting a very long time for payback.
Meanwhile Peters says Northland should be another Florida, where the average personal (untaxed) income ranks 27th in the US, where (in 2011) unemployment was 11.5 per cent, and where (in 2012) the minimum hourly wage was $US7.47. Those in jobs where customers tip were on $US4.65. Perhaps he's talking about the climate.
