Will Luxon get off the fence on Peters?

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

It is no surprise that National Party leader Christopher Luxon doesn’t want to talk about Winston Peters.

Most recent political polls have delivered numbers that have National able to form a coalition government with Act, but only just.

At the start of this month, asked for the umpteenth time if he would go into coalition with NZ First, Luxon said: “They’re not in Parliament, and they’re not above the threshold. And so it hasn’t been a consideration.”

Well, three polls out since then have NZ First on 5 percent or more, as the 78-year-old warhorse of populism and nationalism in New Zealand cranks up his campaign, telling people he will “take back our country”.

Two months from the election, it looks increasingly like Luxon at some stage will have to either rule out the possibility of governing with Peters’ support, or keep the door open — and it’s likely he will choose the latter.

That is even after Act leader David Seymour tried to close the door on Peters on National’s behalf, ruling out working with Peters himself. NZ First has risen in the polls since then.

The fact is, National could need NZ First’s support. On the other hand, ruling Peters out would cause some votes to shift from NZ First to Act and National, and potentially keep the party and Peters out of Parliament.

Having to rely on Winston Peters to form the next government would be a nightmare scenario for Luxon — a three-headed “coalition of chaos” like he has labelled the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori alternative, or a two-party coaltion with either Act or NZ First in a confidence-and-supply arrangement . . . although most National supporters would no doubt say “better that than a third term for Labour”.

Another factor Luxon would have to consider is that while Peters got in early and ruled out working with Labour nine months ago — “because they can’t be trusted”, referring to the Government’s work on the He Puapua report and Three Waters — it would not be a great surprise if post the election, if it suited him and NZ First, Peters found a reason to put Labour back in government rather than National.

National’s leaders have let voters know whether they would work with NZ First in the next government at each of the past five elections.

Sir John Key both ruled Peters in (2014) and out (2008 and 2011); Sir Bill English ruled him in (2017); Simon Bridges and then Judith Collins both ruled him out (2020). Obviously there were many other factors at play, but of the three times in the past 15 years that National ruled out working with Peters post-election, NZ First garnered 4.1 percent in 2008, 6.6 percent in 2011 and 2.6 percent in 2020.

It is certainly not an easy decision, and one that will likely be keeping National Party strategists up at night.