Ready to turn page on a tough year

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

2023 has been a year of immense challenges for this region and as it draws to an end people will be looking forward to a well-earned break — and hopefully summer weather finally, like the forecast for this weekend.

Many have been buffeted by the difficulties of this year, perhaps none more so than forestry contractors. Their stark situation was made clear in a recent report that the workforce has halved in the past two and a half years.

Our farmers are also being hit by a triple-whammy of increasing costs and falling revenue as well as all the damage from severe weather events.

The latest Infometrics economic monitor for this region gave an estimate from provisional data of a 0.3 percent decline in economic activity here for the year to September, compared with a national average of 1.7 percent growth.

The actual nationwide data came in on Thursday and it was much worse than had been expected; after a number of historical revisions, gross domestic product for the year to September fell 0.6 percent. No doubt the Tairāwhiti economy has contracted more than this.

One lowlight among the indicators in the Infometrics report was total guest nights here decreasing by 5.1 percent, compared with an increase nationally of 48.9 percent. Another was house sales falling 28 percent over the 12 months, to 367 — 210 sales fewer than the region’s 10-year average of 577 sales a year, and twice the nationwide 13.7 percent drop in house sales.

The report’s overview said primary sector employment was considerably lower, “underscoring the increased pressure being felt”. On-farm costs rose 7.3 percent according to Stats NZ, while AgriHQ data showed a 45 percent fall in mutton slaughter prices, a 25 percent fall for lamb slaughter prices and 9.8 percent for beef.

A key pain point for many Gisborne households is the surging cost of renting, from an average $300 a week four years ago to more than $500 now.

This all translates into pain in the city centre as well. While there will have been a considerable amount of cyclone recovery expenditure, card spending in Tairāwhiti was up 5.0 percent in the year to September compared with 7.4 percent nationally — a slight contraction locally in real terms, accounting for inflation of 5.6 percent in the year to September.

There is a silver lining in the numbers this week pointing to the country already being in recession, in that it shows interest rate hikes are working and rates should come back down sooner than had been anticipated — which will be a relief for everyone with mortgages.

While 2024 is going to be rocky at the start at least, here in Tairāwhiti we can rest assured over the holiday that it will be an improvement on this year.