Major parties losing support at margins

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Less than three months out from the general election, polls are showing a degree of disgruntlement with the offerings of the two main political parties and lukewarm support for either of the two Chris options for our next prime minister.

The major parties used to attract more than 70 percent of support between them in most political polls, but lately they have both been polling in the low-to-mid 30s.

It seems that the increasing focus on the fight for the centre ground has made Labour and National too vanilla for many who have backed them in the past, with that support leaking to minor parties with policies more appealing to these people.

The most successful parties in this regard are the leading potential coalition partners for either side, Act (12-13 percent in three polls over the past week), the Green Party (8-10 percent) and Te Pāti Māori (3-5 percent) — but other minor parties are also hovering and could be in a position to make a serious bid for the 5 percent threshold.

NZ First is the most obvious challenger, gaining to 3-4 percent support in recent polls and a proven performer in election campaigns — although it is likely to have lost some of its traditional support to Act — while The Opportunities Party (TOP) recorded 2.9 percent support in a Talbot Mills poll last week.

National has swung back to being in the lead in most polls, just, but not always in a position to form the next government (the numbers in a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll last week would have delivered a hung parliament). The 1News Verian (formerly Kantar) poll this week had National on 35 percent and Labour on 33, while last week’s polls had National on 33.3 and 36, and Labour on 31.1 and 31 percent respectively.

According to the NZ Herald poll of polls, a National-Act coalition is the most likely option at this stage with a probability of 45.8 percent, while the probability of a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori coalition is now at 40.3 percent.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, ministerial misfires and tough economic conditions have helped to end the honeymoon for Chris Hipkins. His support has backtracked from an average in the mid-30s soon after taking over as prime minister in late January, to 23 and 24 percent in the two latest polls (although Labour’s official pollster Talbot Mills had his support steady at 32 percent).

National leader Christopher Luxon continues to struggle to have cut-through with voters. He was up 2 points to 20 percent support as preferred prime minister in Verian/Kantar polling, down 3 at 20 in the latest Curia poll and down 4 at 21 in the Talbot Mills poll.