Temperature records could be broken as large parts of the country boil under scorching temperatures.
More than a dozen heat alerts have already been issued across the country, and forecast highs nudged up to 38C for one city.
“Records could roll this weekend in some places!”, MetService wrote on X just before noon, when temperatures had already topped 30C in Christchurch. They fell to 20C less than two hours later after a southerly change.
It was 29.4 in Blenheim at 1.30pm, with 32C forecast. Meanwhile, Napier and Hastings joined the 30C group, on their way to highs of 33C today and 34C and 35C respectively tomorrow.
The furnace will be at full blast for the twin Hawke’s Bay cities on Sunday, with 36C expected in Napier and 38C in Hastings – 12.7C above the city’s January average, MetService wrote.
Heat alerts have already been issued for both cities today, as well as Whakatāne, Motueka, Blenheim and Kaikōura, with fresh alerts for tomorrow in Paihia and Russell, Whangārei, Whitianga, Tauranga, Whakatāne, Gisborne, Napier, Hastings, Masterton, Motueka, Blenheim, Kaikōura and Christchurch.
Records could roll this weekend in some places! Here are a few forecast maximum temperatures as of this morning (Friday)🌡
— MetService NZ (@MetService) January 8, 2026
Heat alerts are in place for the following on Saturday:
Paihia and Russel, Whangārei, Whitianga, Tauranga, Whakatāne, Gisborne, Napier, Hastings,… pic.twitter.com/qAZfCUi3bY
Heat alerts are made a day out from hot weather and are based on each centre’s usual summer highs and/or how many days of hot weather are forecast.
“Remember that heat alerts are more than just a typical hot summer’s day”, MetService wrote.
The places most at risk of breaking January heat records were in Northland, Coromandel and Hawke’s Bay, MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley said.
“We’re seeing places like in Northland, such as Whangārei, or in the Coromandel, like Tairua - even Napier in the Hawke’s Bay - they’re getting really close to their records.
“Napier is forecast with 36C on Sunday, and their January record is 36.9C in 1979, so they could quite easily bump over the edge there.”
In Whangarei, which is expected to reach 31C on Sunday, the January record is 31.2C, set in 2017. In Whitianga, where 30C is forecast the same day, the January record is 30.3C, set in 2004.
Kerikeri’s 31.2C January record from 1983 is also under threat tomorrow, with 31C forecast in the Bay of Islands town.
Records are not expected to be under threat in Tauranga, Whakatāne, Blenheim and Christchurch, though all should have highs in the low 30s this weekend.
No records for Hastings’ hottest January temperature were available from MetService or Hastings District Council.
Warnings & Watches have been issued for this weekend 🟠🟡
— MetService NZ (@MetService) January 8, 2026
Heavy rain and strong winds are expected for parts of the South Island and Central New Zealand as a front, preceded by a strong, moist northwesterly flow moves up.
For more information: https://t.co/qHyE5zySvx pic.twitter.com/TiaxF7viX7
The hot weather alerts join a slew of wind and rain warnings and watches issued across the lower North Island and most of the South Island this weekend.
Those in the high country and foothills of Canterbury are being warned to expect severe gale northwesterlies gusting 130km/h in exposed places over 21 hours from 10pm tomorrow.
“Damage to trees, powerlines, and unsecured structures [is] possible. Driving may be difficult, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles,” MetService said as it urged people to secure loose items.
An extreme fire danger has already been announced for this weekend in the Canterbury district, with the risk also high in Marlborough, Wairarapa, Hawke’s Bay, Tairāwhiti and Northland.
Wind watches have been issued from the early hours of Sunday for the lower North Island from the Tararua district south, and all the South Island except Nelson, the West Coast and Westland from the early hours of Sunday through to the afternoon and evening.
There are heavy rain warnings for Westland and Fiordland tomorrow and early Sunday, and for the ranges of Westland between Haast and Doubtful Sound on Sunday, with heavy rain watches for Grey and Buller districts, Nelson Lakes, and the Otago lakes and rivers’ headwaters on Sunday.
MetService said these temperatures had been caused by the remnants of the Australian heatwave earlier this week, which caused some areas to reach 45C.
Experts have warned that such severe heat is likely to become more frequent.
Nava Fedaeff, Earth Sciences New Zealand’s manager of climate, atmosphere and hazards, told the Herald that warmer temperatures were set to continue.
She warned that the likelihood of serious heatwaves in New Zealand would increase, causing a threat to the health of humans and animals, and to agriculture.
“I think the longer-term projections are that the number of extreme heat days and heatwaves are going to increase in New Zealand.
“We will see new temperature records and things like that set in the future, not necessarily with this event coming, but something of that flavour.”
We might even be in for another heatwave-like event this summer, she said.
Fedaeff said that, when extreme heat events affected New Zealand, they typically started with hot weather over Australia.
“There’s generally a high pressure over Australia ... They have got a lot of continental heat, and then it needs to come our way.”
She said a westerly or a northwesterly wind flow was necessary to bring warm air over New Zealand.
“All of those things kind of need to come together, which is more on the weather time scale. We know that these types of weather patterns do occur quite frequently in the summer.”
There had been only three days in New Zealand history on which temperatures had reached 40C, whereas such high temperatures were significantly more common in Australia and Europe.
For the first few months of this year, above-average temperatures are expected, particularly in the north and west of the North Island.
The Earth Sciences seasonal climate outlook for January to March also indicated above-average rainfall for the north and east of the North Island, and below-average rainfall for the west of the South Island.
Fedaeff said that, at the start of the year, a weak La Nina would be at play over New Zealand.
“That means we get more northerly and northeasterly winds, so more weather from the tropics, which is a warm place.”
Factors typically contributing to hotter years included warm seas.
“Marine heatwave conditions, which are in play now, they don’t turn off as quickly as air temperatures do.”
Earth Sciences’ latest annual climate report showed 2025 was New Zealand’s fourth-hottest year on record, with four of its five warmest years occurring since 2021.
It's official, 2025 was Aotearoa New Zealand’s 4th-warmest year on record 🌡️. The average temperature was 13.51°C, 0.77°C above the 1991–2020 average.https://t.co/ue26ZPcilo
— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) January 8, 2026
🧵 on the things you should know about 2025’s climate in New Zealand: pic.twitter.com/SfIXUpjgNR
“We already have this massive boost from climate change,” Fedaeff said. “That means that we’re starting off on a warmer note just because we’ve loaded that dice already.”
The climate report found that most regions were hotter than average by between 0.51 and 1.2C, but parts of Northland and Bay of Plenty were significantly hotter, by more than 1.2C.
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