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Home / Gisborne Herald / Opinion

High risk of escalation

Gisborne Herald
18 Mar, 2024 08:26 PMQuick Read

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A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

If the Houthis do have hypersonic missiles in their “bag of surprises” for battles at sea, to counter the United States and its allies, it seems unlikely to me that they would stop attacks against merchant shipping even if a ceasefire in the Gaza War was agreed to.

In my opinion, the Houthis will attempt to expand their power base to become more of a force in the Middle East, and gain more influence with Iran. Perhaps they are signalling their intent through their threat to also target Israel-linked merchant ships taking the longer route via the Cape of Good Hope.

The Middle East situation will escalate significantly if the Houthis are successful in an attack on any of the warships in the Red Sea —especially if they have hypersonic missiles . . . . It seems to me that if they successfully used even one of those missiles against a warship, they would invite an immediate overwhelming air strike against Yemen, and likely Iran as well.

The US and its allies may well welcome a “legitimate” excuse to bomb Iran’s nuclear programme back to the “stone age”. That would be particularly likely if the Houthis did have hypersonic missiles, which were thought to have been provided by Iran.

If in fact the US does not have suitable counter measures or hardware to nullify the effect of those missiles, I believe we will have a huge escalation to the point of a complete war in the Middle East.

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Dennis Pennefather

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