Govt can expect a strong Opposition

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

While the shape and policies of our next Government remain unknown 25 days on from the election, the Opposition it will face became clearer yesterday with confirmation that Chris Hipkins will stay on as Labour Party leader, with Carmel Sepuloni as deputy.

It bodes well for Labour that no one stood against Hipkins and that he made clear his intent to lead the party in the 2026 election campaign, with a "refreshed policy platform".

Will that include a wealth or capital gains tax? Hipkins had ruled out any wealth tax under his leadership, but yesterday said that could change. The party was starting again after the election loss: "that means everything comes back on to the table — and that includes a discussion around tax".

Shadow positions would not be allocated until the Government had been formed and they knew the ministers they would be opposing.

Previous deputy leader of the party Kelvin Davis had told Hipkins he wanted to step down from the role, and Sepuloni was unanimously supported by the caucus of 34 MPs that met yesterday to discuss the election and hold a secret leadership ballot — where Hipkins needed to have the support of at least 21 MPs, under the party's rules.

While Labour has lost talent and skills in the near-halving of its caucus, and Hipkins acknowledged yesterday that it was possible other senior MPs might join Andrew Little and retire either before or after the summer break, it will retain strong performers in Parliament with both ministerial and Opposition experience.

One feature of the Opposition to watch this coming term will be a strong and unapologetic tangata whenua voice in the shape of a six-seat Te Pāti Māori — its largest cohort ever.

All its MPs will also be well connected with their rohe, having won six of the seven Māori electorate seats in a Te Pāti Māori wave that almost no one saw coming, dislodging Labour's hold on five of those seats.

Another feature will be a strong Green Party with its most MPs ever, growing from 10 in the last term to 15 — up one from election night, after special votes lifted its share of the party vote to 11.6 percent. It also has three electorate MPs for the first time, along with governing experience following two terms working with Labour that  included ministerial roles outside Cabinet for co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson, and Julie Anne Genter in the 2017-2020 term.

There is no doubt that these three parties will have the intent and experience to vigorously hold the Government that emerges from coalition negotiations to account.

Just how "vigorous" they might be will depend in part on the policy platform agreed between National, Act and NZ First, and how the parties come together and govern.