Everything to do with the economy

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

Few governments in New Zealand's history would have faced a decision as difficult as this one does at its Cabinet meeting today, on when to exit the lockdown that has been the country's response to Covid-19.

Yes, there have been major decisions in the past, for example the declaration of war in September 1939, that have much greater significance and impact. But in many ways they were also much more straightforward than this.

That is because as the pandemic continues, the Government and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern are going to have to confront the conflicting demands of overcoming the virus and ameliorating the effects on the economy and the wellbeing of citizens.

It is high noon for the Government at 4pm today when it announces the result of its deliberations.

The early decision to go into a four-week lockdown has definitely paid off as far as the virus is concerned. New Zealand's rate of infection and, even more importantly its fatality levels, are impressive and the Government has justifiably won international praise.

But fears about the long-term effects on the economy are growing. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters said today that there was no point in saving the country from coronavirus if the social effects and the impact on the economy were greater. Going to Level 3 would get 500,000 more people back to work, he said — a clear indication of how he will be voting today.

But there is a risk with Level 3. Treasury and other economists are advising the Government that having to go back to Level 4 would be more disastrous than extending the present lockdown.

In reality, the drop to Level 3 has very little to do with the public and everything with the economy.

Polling so far shows that New Zealanders do generally accept the need for the lockdown and with a few, fortunately rare, exceptions have stuck to the conditions.

But it is worrying to see signs, particularly on social media, that some people think Level 3 is going to be open slather again and they can do what they want. This attitude could destroy everything that has so painfully been attained.

In this sense there is another complication in that Anzac Day falls this Saturday and is being observed next Monday. Will people feel that having sacrificed Easter, they deserve to enjoy this coming long weekend?

The country will at least get some certainty about the future this afternoon.