Change ahead as weather systems from sub-tropics bring warm, wet conditions

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Make the most of the sun — next week sees the unwelcome return of rain and sticky, sub-tropical weather.

That is the consensus of various models for the days ahead, with MetService issuing its latest outlook for the period following this weekend.

To sum up the various forecasts, the Gisborne-East  Coast region is in for three bouts of rain from Monday onward.

MetService says on Monday a low develops in the Tasman Sea and moves onto the North Island, bringing heavy rain to some areas.

Then a warm and humid northerly flow sets in, and more rain, with the low possibility of warning amounts for the eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti.

Looking ahead to next Friday, models indicate another low from the Tasman could again deliver heavy rain to the Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Gisborne regions.

Next week’s weather systems are modelled to drag down warm, wet weather from the sub-tropics, and local residents can expect warm, sticky nights.

MetService says there is some uncertainty regarding the movement of next week’s weather, and this will be the subject of further updates.

Meanwhile, for those wanting to take a dip, water temperatures off local beaches have risen steadily, from below average in early November to slightly above average.

In early November the water temperature was measured at 15.2 degrees, while yesterday it was at 19.4 against the January average of 19.2.

Another measurement had it warmer at 20.1 degrees, which rates the water as “comfortable for swimming”.

Despite private thermometers registering the early 30s in the past few days, Gisborne has yet to officially crack the 30-degree mark this summer, with the highest “high” being 29.1 on December 30.

However, MetService is forecasting 31 for tomorrow and 30 for Sunday.