Chances of quake, tsunami outlined

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

THERE is no stopping a tsunami or predicting when one will occur, but the warning signs will be there, says Kate Boersen of Illuminate Science.

She was giving  a presentation at the Māhia Golf Club in the first stop of the Hikurangi M9 Roadshow.

The initiative is funded by Toka Tū Ake EQC and is a collaboration with Rongomaiwahine Iwi Trust (RIT) and East Coast Lab. Ms Boersen gave a presentation about the seismic activity along the Hikurangi subduction zone.

“If an earthquake is long or strong, get gone. That means if an earthquake is longer than one minute or is so strong that it is difficult to stand, people should evacuate inland or to high ground without delay,” she said.

“Services like power and phones could be out, and even if they are operating, there will not be enough time for official warnings, so people should always rely on natural warnings,” she adds.

Using a credible-science scenario model, Ms Boersen showed that a tsunami of epic proportions would cover areas that have been modelled as being in a tsunami inundation zone. She also spoke about the major tsunamis in 2011 and 2014 in Japan, and how, given New Zealand’s relatively similar island shapes and geographic location, these could serve as examples for New Zealand.

“There is a 26 percent chance of a large earthquake and tsunami occurring along the Hikurangi subduction zone in the next 50 years,” Ms Boersen warned.

Cedar Wairau, team lead for emergency response with RIT, has a strong reason for wanting to educate others about flood safety, natural disaster preparedness and always being careful around water.

She joined the RIT in November last year. But in 2014, when she was aged just 13, her uncle drowned in a boating accident along the coast. Ten years after this tragedy, she is now teaching others vital skills needed to survive hazardous deep-water situations.

“The end result has been positive.

“I just hope no other teenager ever has to go through that again,” Ms Wairau said.