What price a mares' trifecta in the $120,000 Jaguar Easter at Ellerslie today?
Not the 500-1 you might imagine.
Party Queen, Country Rose, Miss Jessie Jay, Classic Babe, Regency and Fifty Fifty give the mares a strong hand even after the scratching of She's A Meanie, who has been sold to Singapore.
This is particularly so as, with the possible exception of Regency, each will be suited by the easing of track conditions after Thursday night's rain.
And even Regency has had three starts on easy tracks for a win and two placings.
Party Queen is suited by this race and is likely to dispute favouritism with Country Rose.
The rain has been a huge plus for Party Queen. Her two starts this preparation have both been on unsuitable firm tracks and she was beaten only a short head by Madhuri Dixit in a too-short 1200m and was then caught wide when a close-up sixth to Pherozity at 1400m last start.
"She's done exceptionally well," said co-trainer Graeme Sanders yesterday.
Forget Regency's Tauranga run where an outside draw saw her cover a lot of ground around the field. Instead, weigh her chances up on her fast-finishing second to Saint Cecile in the Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha, a repeat of which would put her right in this finish at good odds.
Fifty Fifty is a trifecta chance at bolter's odds. She has been running on strongly in races which probably did not suit her as much as this.
O'Malleys Boy and Conference are the main male dangers to the mares.
That was a much better run by O'Malleys Boy at Tauranga last start than it looks on paper. He had to cover extra ground when improving around the field 600m out and was only one length from Soap Opera in fourth place at the finish.
The Ellerslie 1600m is a much different affair than Tauranga's 1600m, suiting horses finishing hard at the leaders, something O'Malleys Boy does well when he gets his favourite easy conditions.
O'Malleys Boy, traditionally slow away, should not be greatly affected by barrier No22.
On his day Conference is up to any class and there is no question last week at Awapuni was his day. The burst he turned on to win from last at the 600m was amazing.
Conference has won on all types of footing and will not be put off by the rain-affected footing.
Ellerslie received 47mm of rain to yesterday morning, but the track yesterday afternoon was still only 2.8 and easy.
Racing: Mares look true Easter trifecta prospect
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