THE future of New Zealand (and possibly the world, for that matter) hinges on a seesaw that sits the environment at one end and the economy at the other and then tries to achieve balance.
It is a conundrum that is neatly microcosm-ed by Trans Tasman Resources' (TTR) application to mine ironsand from the seafloor off the South Taranaki coast.
On the one hand is the threat to the environment - either some kind of malfunction and subsequent ecological disaster, or the long-term effects of sucking up vast quantities of sand and, after extracting iron particles, dumping most of it back on the seabed - and on the other is the boost to the economy (jobs, local economic growth and revenue for the national exchequer).
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been set up to make these often subtle judgment calls. You do not envy them the task. Even after they have absorbed and comprehended all the technical arguments, they then have to weigh up an ethical choice. And, of course, if they get it wrong the result could be very serious. It is wisdom of Solomon stuff.
Don't be overly fooled by the "Environmental Protection" tag. If that was their only raison d'etre, they would simply say no to all applications to exploit our natural resources.
Almost any body set up by a New Zealand government has some financial imperative at play. Governments live and die by the state of the economy, and whether people have jobs and believe they are enjoying a decent standard of living. So the agency may feel under some almost imperceptible pressure to allow companies to dig in to the Earth's bounty and excavate some wealth for itself and others.
Certainly South Taranaki and Whanganui would be happy to get some of the 700 regional jobs that TTR is anticipating. We have just gone through an election campaign with almost every wannabe councillor telling us we need more jobs.
It should be pointed out, however, that experience tells us that companies seeking such consents always dangle the jobs carrot and the reality is almost always fewer than were originally dangled.
The real problem here for us and for the Environmental Protection Agency is that we just don't know.
We do not know what effect mining sand from the seafloor will have on marine life and the complex and fragile eco-systems of the ocean. Experts will be lined up on both sides to give their considered opinions, but even they do not know.
As former US secretary of state Donald Rumsfeld said, in relation to the invasion of Iraq, there are known unknowns and then there are unknown unknowns. And that is what the EPA now faces.