By MIKE DILLON
There cannot be much chance that Diamond Cashel will be unlucky in today's $150,000 Bayer Classic at Otaki - she has used all her bad luck up.
If you accept that a horse, on average, is unlucky once in every 10 races then Diamond Cashel, after a horror run of misadventure, should be able to race through 25 careers and never strike misfortune again.
If she strikes it today, it will be wrist-slitting stuff for trainer Paul O'Sullivan.
A formline of 13-59P may not look flash, but that luckless eventuality has never given O'Sullivan cause to waver from his opinion that Diamond Cashel is one of the best 3-year-olds through his stable in a decade. But he is getting frustrated.
"You can talk them up for one race, but to have to do it after three races is tough. Eventually they have to do it themselves.
"I haven't changed my opinion of her, but I will be very disappointed if she gets a nice run and does nothing. It's happened before."
The substantial Sir Tristram filly appreciates plenty of galloping room and the No 1 barrier draw might have been a concern had the false rail not been employed.
It will give Lance O'Sullivan the option of sitting and waiting for an inside run in the home straight.
The Bayer is one of the season's most fascinating 3-year-old races because luck in running plays such a vital part.
Adding another dimension this time is the fact that outstanding fillies Butterscotch and Star Satire have drawn No 2 and No 3 directly outside Diamond Cashel.
Star Satire's trainer, Ross Taylor, said that made it interesting.
"It's a hard race to work out, you really have no idea who will lead.
"Sitting and waiting to see what happens in the first 300m is probably the plan - we have the draw to do that with the false rail out."
Diamond Cashel will be no pushover, but Taylor is excited about the progress of Star Satire since the filly scored a ridiculously easy win at Avondale nearly three weeks ago.
"It was so easy for her that I took her to Te Rapa on Sunday and galloped her between races, which has brought her on brilliantly.
"I can't believe how she's gone to another level since her spring racing, and it's not as though we were unhappy with her then. She's just thrived."
Not many fillies can carry 3kg clear topweight of 57kg and win as easily as Butterscotch did at Tauranga two weeks ago.
Owner and co-trainer Jim Gibbs believes the filly has improved significantly since and the track not being flint hard will be in her favour.
The Otaki surface was yesterday morning bordering on easy and dried fractionally in the afternoon. Predicted showers overnight were expected to take the rating to easy again by this morning with a fine day taking the track back to firm by Bayer start time of 6.25 pm.
The 3-year-old fillies get most of the mention this season, but Millennium has shown he has the ability to match most of them.
The McKee stable is not disappointed with his first defeat when only third behind La Bella Dama in the Waikato Guineas last start.
"He ran the first 800m in 45 seconds, which was never going to leave much in the tank for a finishing sprint," said Stephen McKee.
"It was probably a better run than it looked and we're very happy with him going into this race."
Significantly, the Waikato Guineas gave Millennium a preview of left-handed racing going into this group-one event.
McKee is unconcerned over Millennium's No 12 barrier draw.
"There is a run of something like 800m to the first bend, so it gives him plenty of time to sort it out."
Racing: Diamond Cashel ready to shine
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