Take the short odds on The Message in the Wanganui Stakes today.
The price may not be up to much, but it's almost certain to be more generous than his realistic chance in the race.
If you doubt that, pull out the video of him winning the Foxbridge Plate a couple of weeks ago where he destroyed similar opposition by eight lengths.
The Message should win, even allowing that a late change in a game plan, as he has had, can sometimes prove disastrous. He will be happy regardless of track conditions and he should simply be too good.
Don't underestimate Penny Arcade for the trifecta, particularly if the track is wet and testing. Her effort to chase The Message home at Te Rapa was a fraction better than it looked.
At Tauranga, Prince Amaizing (No2, R2) can provide a win in his first start from Colleen and Chris Wood's stable. Before his form tailed off a little he looked good against some of the better juveniles last season and was impressive winning a Cambridge trial recently. He got through soft footing at the trials and should be suited unless conditions get too heavy. Rip It Up (No3) looked good in just three juvenile starts and Ms North (No1) has ability.
St Therese (No3, R3) has not started since finishing second to highly talented Clear Advantage at Ruakaka in July, when she was beaten by an exceptional performance. While there are a couple of useful sorts here, the overall form does not match up to the Ruakaka field, which should give St Therese an edge.
Millnorm (No2, R5) has the form to justify starting favourite today, but watch out for a top fresh-up effort from Okiwi Bay (No8). He looks the sort who should keep improving as he ages and the three-month break he has enjoyed should see him ready to produce his best.
Toute Suite (No1, R6) might be worth one more chance. It was only a fair fourth when beaten favourite at Counties last start, but that first middle distance race in this campaign might just have her a fraction fitter this time. She is good enough to beat this field with a peak effort. Santalight (No4) will be dangerous.
The apprentice claims in the open sprint will be significant. Topweight Des's Dream (No1, R9) comes down from 58kg to 53.5kg with Paul Sellwood in the saddle and Tio Lavender (No2) reduces from 55kg to 52kg for Sarah Boyd. Both will be difficult to contain at those weights.
Des's Dream has had a long break from racing, but showed he was somewhere near fitness with a Te Teko trials win.
Tio Lavender just loves the 1400m, a distance at which she has scored five of her eight wins. She is very speedy and her chances will depend on the pattern late in the day suiting horses up front rolling forward from the home bend. Watch the couple of races before this. Throw Ma Danseuse (No6) in your trifecta. She has a great record on her home track.
You have to take a chance on Playful Fingers (No1, R4) seeing out the 1200m of the Waikato Stud Stakes at Wanganui, but she's worth the risk because she will be that much fitter and worth supporting next start. A stone bruise prevented her having a barrier trial, but she is close to fitness and will still be hard to pull back.
La Bella Dama (No5) is better than given generally given credit for and Singalong (No7) can get into it if she gets anything like decent luck from her outside barrier.
The Wanganui Guineas is a tricky race. Nostromo (No1, R6) has to overcome a very wide barrier, but might still be up to it. He looked very good winning a Cambridge barrier trial last week and showed he was up to fairly good class in his limited juvenile racing.
High Reason (No5) is tough and Cousteau (No3) will handle even the worst winter footing.
Racing: The Message is clear for testing Wanganui Stakes
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