For a group two winner Ruud Not Too comes into an R85 race at Te Rapa beautifully placed in the weights.
You could say she is a weight certainty.
Apprentice Hairi Marzuki will rip 4kg off her 60kg topweight and on 56kg she sits just 2kg off the minimum. She has not raced for more than six weeks, but the freshen-up should have been of benefit. TAB early favourite Go Nicholas looks the danger in the opener.
Race 2 is a bit of a mystery. You can make a case for 70 per cent of the field with fresh runner Sarabande (No8) making some appeal.
She was looking for further than today's 1200m in her last preparation, but fresh from a break and with an 800m Rotorua barrier trial win behind her she should be sharp enough for this. Olympic (No2) is likely to be right in it and so too is My Giddy Aunt (No9).
Race 3 may be a touch easier, but not by much. Plenty was lost from punters' pockets when Love Affair (No9) flopped at Matamata last start. Previously on debut she raised eyebrows when she came from equal last to win at Te Aroha.
She had a vet issue after Matamata and the fact the Baker/Forsman team is lining her up here means she is completely recovered if there was anything amiss. She gets 2kg off her 55.5kg and with just 53.5kg to carry around she should take beating if she repeats her Te Aroha effort.
O'Rachael (No6) has been in excellent form in good fields and although she has drawn a touch wide she deserves respect.
You can make a case for just about every runner in Race 4. Cartell (No5) comes out close to the top after a good close second to Irish Moon (No1) on his home track at Pukekohe. Irish Moon is one of the key runners again and with Cartell meeting him on better weight terms he rates highly.
Passing Shot (No2) will probably find this a little easier than behind Splurge at Ellerslie. Sheridan (No2, R5) has been racing well in strong fields and gets his chance to put a win on the board today.
He has an ideal barrier and Vinnie Colgan should get the perfect passage. Splendido (No2) chased home the talented Comin'through last start and that form is good enough to say he can do well here.
Race 6 presents the strongest R75 line-up we've seen for a while.
Pinzalot (No4) has been kept north rather than run at Trentham and as a previous winner at Te Rapa he rates highly, even in this field.
Killarney (No1) may still be a work in progress, but he's getting there and can be a major player here as another who has previously won at Te Rapa. Thatsforsure (No14) is a progressive type yet to reach her peak. The light weight and racing on her home track put her in this.
You can probably forget All Roads (No2, R7) being quite easily beaten at Taranaki last start where a slow surface worked against him. His dry track form is excellent and he rates highly today for the in-form Logan/Gibbs stable.
Hiflyer (No9) got home strongly over 1400m last time and the 1600m here should suit. He has plenty of ability. The Justice League (No5) is huge on his day and can figure.
Arraignment (No2, R8) got home very strongly over this course on his home track at Matamata last start and deserves another victory. Wide Awake (No6) looks a danger.
Bonneval (No1, R8) has been exceptionally strong in her staying races and deserves to be favourite for the $300,000 Wellfield Oaks. You can just see the 2400m at Trentham suiting her perfectly.
Her stablemate Nicoletta (No4) has been exposed in front in the home straight in her recent races and has been there to be run down. Held up for a late run at the lead herself, she could be right in this.
Mystery Show's (No11, R6) fresh win at Avondale was no fluke. She is well capable of stepping up today and winning the $100,000 Wellington Guineas. The track was rated dead yesterday and that would suit her perfectly.