Can Christchurch accommodate Cup games after earthquake?

AMI Stadium. Photo / Greg Bowker

It could be weeks, possibly longer, before Rugby World Cup organisers are able to make a decision on whether Christchurch can still host its seven scheduled games.

The mass of information that needs to be confirmed around the state of the stadium, the number of likely available hotel beds and the potential functionality of transport and other key infrastructural basics makes a quick decision impossible.

Complicating the picture is the uncertainty around the availability of workers specifically for AMI Stadium which the facility's owner, Vbase, has confirmed suffered damage to fixtures and fittings. Some cracks seen in the stands that will need further assessment. The pitch has also suffered liquefaction and the Crusaders are unlikely to play there at all during Super 15.

With six months before the opening game, there time for the stadium to be fixed as long as the structural damage is not serious.

But the bigger and possibly insurmountable problem is accommodation. The city was already going to be stretched to find enough beds on the quarter-final weekend (October 8-9), which is why Pacific Dawn, a 2000-bed cruise liner, was scheduled to berth at Lyttelton Harbour.

Port of Christchurch is confident the damage suffered was minimal and it will be operating at pre-quake levels. With the Lyttelton Tunnel expected to be opened over the weekend, the cruise liner option still seems possible. The prognosis for the CBD hotels is less positive. The Grand Chancellor, with 176 rooms, is on the verge of collapse. The Copthorne on Durham Street has also reportedly suffered damage and inevitably once structural engineers have been able to carry out more detailed examinations, other major hotels will be in need of repair.

Mayor Bob Parker says that entire blocks of the CBD will have to be demolished.

Prime Minister John Key and Rugby New Zealand 2011 chief executive Martin Snedden have both reiterated their desire to keep games in Christchurch, but so much will depend on how many beds the city will be able to offer visitors. So much depends, too, on whether the city's infrastructure will be able to cope with fan numbers. The stadium has a bigger capacity than in previous years - more seats, more people, more pressure on basics such as water supply and sewerage.

Damage to residential properties was extensive and many homes were seriously damaged, too, in the September 4 quake. The city's capacity to soak up visitors by renting out houses is also going to be limited.

All manner of contingencies will have to be considered, with the only certainty so far being that all games will remain in New Zealand.

The worst case scenario is that AMI Stadium is deemed irreparable in the time frame and alternative venues are found for all seven scheduled games. The quarter-finals - which will feature the two qualifiers from Pool A (most likely New Zealand and France) and two from Pool B which contains Argentina, England or Scotland - would need to be hosted at a venue of comparable size. With Wellington already scheduled to host the other two, Auckland is probably the only viable alternative.

But if AMI Stadium can be fixed and the bed count is significantly but not massively reduced, the organisers could examine the feasibility of still playing in Christchurch but accommodating people elsewhere.

During the British & Lions tour in 2005, air curfews were extended to allow visiting fans to fly back to Auckland on the night of the first test in Christchurch.