We are now well along the downward track on the real estate cycle; and if you can predict when the upturn will start, you can probably predict when interest rates will rise too.
Over at Westpac, economists write: "In Auckland, house prices are now falling gradually on a monthly basis, are down 2 per cent since February. Average prices in the region are now back at August 2016 levels."
The economists note that outside of Auckland, house prices rose a touch in May, and are up 6.8 per cent on a year ago.
"A year ago, annual house price inflation outside of Auckland was running at a rate of 11 per cent, and two years ago it was almost 16 per cent.
"The slowdown in the housing market in recent months has matched our expectations that the changing policy backdrop would be a significant drag. In March we saw the holding period for taxing capital gains on investment properties extended from two years to five years (the so called 'bright line' test).
