Drought spreading, but Niwa expects rain ... eventually

Northland is still the worst-affected area but the dry weather is moving southwards. Photo / Northern Advocate

The dry weather that continues to plague Northland farmers is heading south but a climate scientist says there is no cause for panic - yet.

Forecasts from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) suggest below-normal rainfall for the next three months in areas such as Waikato and The Bay of Plenty and eastern parts of the North Island.

Niwa climate scientist Jim Renwick said soil moisture deficits in parts of the central North Island, the Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hauraki Plains and Coromandel were now at 100mm - meaning 100mm of rain was needed to saturate the soil to normal levels in those areas.

"Normally in the those places they're in the order of 30mm, so they're a lot drier than they would normally be."

"Then again, in Northland soil moisture deficit levels are at 130mm when they normally should average at about 50mm so it is at an extreme end."

Mr Renwick said soil moisture conditions would probably remain low in the dry areas well into March before normal rainfall resumed in April.

"We could be in for a couple of dry months but I wouldn't expect it to last much longer than that but that is long enough to cause problems."

"We are not at total panic stations but if there isn't any rain in the next few weeks I think it could be serious."

Two years after the driest weather in more than a century struck, Waikato Federated Farmers president Stew Wadey said farmers were only now becoming "a little concerned".

"We are not really brown like in Northland, the plants are still not overly stressed so we will get a response pretty quick - if we get rain in the next week," he said.

"Our normal practice is to cope with a six-week dry period, it's when it gets to eight or ten weeks like it has been in Northland that it becomes a challenge."

Mr Wadey said this summer's conditions were different to 2008. By January that year the region had had no significant rainfall since November 2007.

Ken Bartlett of the advisory agency Farmwise said farmers in the region did not have as much supplementary feed as last year but were likely to have to start feeding cows 20 days earlier than last year.

"If it doesn't rain a bit in the next 10 days it's going to look a bit bloody ugly."

If conditions do worsen the economy could be affected, as at least half of Fonterra's milk supply comes from farms north of Taupo, and Waikato is its main milk catchment.

Waikato milk collection was down 2 per cent on this time last year, Northland was down 5 per cent, and overall North Island collection was about 2 per cent down overall. Taranaki levels held firm.

Fonterra was forecasting $6.05 per kilogram of milksolids payout this season but dry conditions could hamper this.

Whakatane Federated Farmers branch chairman Gerard Van Beek said production on the Bay of Plenty plains was down 9 per cent in the month to early January compared with the past season.

He said pasture growth was down to 22kg of dry matter a hectare: "That's a third of what's needed."

DROUGHT UPDATE

Hamilton residents: Sprinkler restrictions imposed yesterday
North Island milk collection: 2 per cent down on last year
Otago: Water controls in some areas