Weather expected to be warm, stable

Scientists are expecting "nothing too extreme" in an early summer season predicted to please holidaymakers and farmers alike.

After a windy spring which brought blustery conditions to much of the country last month, the weather is set to settle down this month, opening a warm and stable glide into the holiday season.

An outlook for the next three months, issued by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research yesterday, painted a relatively rosy picture of pleasant temperatures for most of New Zealand.

"It's not a cold summer - we are talking about near-average or above-average temperatures, and near-normal rainfall for most places," said Niwa climate variability and change principal scientist Dr Brett Mullan.

The chances of below-normal temperatures across all regions was put at just 20 per cent, with the calm climate conditions largely owing to the equatorial Pacific Ocean remaining in a neutral state, with neither El Nino nor La Nina patterns stirring up the weather.

"We've got into the habit of starting the cycle either with a La Nina or El Nina, and if one of those is in place, they have a big effect on the weather for a long time," Dr Mullan said.

"It doesn't mean you can't get anything out of the ordinary for a short time, but for the season as a whole, it all tends to be not so far away from the average."

Soil moisture levels and river flows were expected to be below normal in the north of the North Island, and most likely above normal in the east of the island. Rainfall totals over the period would most likely also be at near-normal levels in all regions except for the north and east of the North Island, where the chance of more rainfall than normal was just as likely. "That's good news because it's quite dry at the moment in Northland and places in the east like Coromandel."

Dr Mullan said farmers would be pleased the outlook didn't come with the kind of conditions that produced droughts which parched much of the country this year. "It's a little bit too early to say there's no chance of drought, but it doesn't look too bad for the moment."

Dr Mullan said although spring had been windier than usual, the westerlies would die away to normal conditions, and even to dry weather in the west of the North Island.

He blamed last month's unsettled weather on low-pressure systems that hung around Antarctica, sending fronts past NZ one after another.