By MURRAY DEAKER
We are obsessed by rugby.
Even in a week when cricket is racked by its biggest controversy since the infamous bodyline series, and when league has been building up to its showpiece test match, the New Zealand sporting public have preferred to speculate on who will be the next All Black captain.
That decision will not be announced for weeks, but already speculation has reached fever pitch.
Everyone you speak to has a theory. No one dismisses the topic as too distant, too remote, too complex or too simple.
By the time All Black coach Wayne Smith announces his captain we will have listened to and read slight variations of the same themes countless times.
Let me state my theory in print, just once.
Barring injury, Todd Blackadder will be the next captain of the All Blacks.
The prime reason is that he is the best rugby captain in the country.
He wins more matches than any other captain in Super 12 or in the NPC and he wins the ones that really matter.
For the last two seasons he has led the Canterbury Crusaders to competition success, and right now they are at the top of the table again.
Few critics or analysts picked them to succeed in either 1998 or 1999. Going into both finals, the Crusaders were underdogs.
Captain Blackadder is a winner. When the going gets tough he gets his team up there and they get home.
Forget all the stuff he does off the field, which he does superbly, and analyse his performance on it.
His team win. That is his job and their job - to win. All the peri-pheral paraphernalia is irrelevant if a team lose.
Although the red-and-black faithful might dispute it, Todd is not God and certainly makes mistakes.
What he does differently from other captains is that he admits them, doesn't dwell on them, and most importantly, doesn't repeat them.
On the field he is in control. The players now automatically look to him for a decision and inevitably they get one quickly and without either a committee meeting or a fuss.
Yet at the same time he gives his players space, room to express their individuality and responsibility for their actions.
Under his leadership, players as diverse as Norm Berryman and Ron Cribb have prospered.
Already Blackadder has an established relationship with the All Black coach, Smith.
It was their joint leadership, with the management skills of Robbie Deans, that took the Crusaders to their two titles.
When rumour mongers suggested that Deans was more responsible for the coaching success than Smith, it was Blackadder who step-ped in to clarify the situation in his inimitable style.
"That's crap," he said. "Smithy did the coaching and Robbie was the manager. We all knew what we were doing."
End of rumour. "God" had spoken.
Smith won't have forgotten what Blackadder did on that occasion and on countless others when direct leadership was required.
The two developed a relationship built on trust, understanding, honesty and openness. They will take that into the All Blacks with them.
The second reason why Blackadder will be the next captain of the All Blacks is that he is one of the two best locks in the country.
He is certainly the best all-round lock to play at No 2 in the lineout.
Week in and week out he produces consistent form at Super 12 level. Robin Brooke doesn't. Royce Willis simply doesn't play enough. There are no other contenders.
Troy Flavell will either be at No 4 in the lineout or playing blindside flanker.
Why is there a debate? For me, it is the ultimate "no-brainer."
Todd Blackadder is the best captain in the country and one of the two best locks.
Let's get back to discussing Hansie Cronje - now there is someone so complex that you could speculate for hours about what motivates him, but no one wants to!
* Murray Deaker is the host of Radio ZB's Sportstalk.
Rugby: Blackadder will be the next All Black captain
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