By MIKE DILLON
Jumping from 1400m to 2000m at group one is no day at the beach for most horses but Frank Ritchie is not counting Showella out.
Neither is the TAB.
Yesterday the class Takanini mare was $3.50 fixed-odds favourite to win tomorrow's $100,000 Lion Red Stakes at Ellerslie, despite an unorthodox preparation.
This is a big ask for Showella at only her second start since going amiss in Melbourne in the spring, but Ritchie is not too concerned.
"I'm happy with her condition, except that going into a 2000m race second up from a spell is never easy.
"Having said that, she's fit enough to be competitive."
It was understandable that Showella was never sighted over 1400m behind Sunline when resuming at Te Rapa last start.
The 2000m is a lead-up to Monday week's $A1.25 million Australian Cup, but Ritchie says he will have no problems with pulling the mare out of that assignment if this performance does not come up to his expectations or that Showella does not train on well through the effort.
"Even if she won and did not pull up that well, I would miss the Australian Cup because she has a big campaign in Sydney.
"If she was not 100 per cent it would be too tough to put her on a plane and race her nine days later then take her up to Sydney."
After her top second to Giovana at Te Rapa last start, She's a Meanie is the logical threat, but the No 11 barrier is unfortunate.
Draws are crucial for most horses at Ellerslie's 2000m barrier.
There would appear to be little choice for Lance O'Sullivan but to drop She's Meanie back to the rear and try to get close to the rail. Pressing forward by sprinting up the steep rise out of the straight is probably not an option.
She's A Meanie has a very good sprint when held up until late and a fast pace would help her to be storming into the race in the closing stages.
The danger could be Lord Presto, who has no weight-for-age form, but whose ability at the very best level is becoming very obvious.
The No2 barrier draw could be crucial.
Lord Presto can race handy to the speed, can kick hard when in his best form and having won over 1600m last start, should be ideally suited by the 2000m.
Frank Ritchie does not rule Bluebird The Word out of getting some of the money.
"He's probably never been better in the last couple of seasons.
"The only problem is he hates the Ellerslie track - he's had 12 starts there and hasn't won one."
Tall Poppy could not finish on when only seventh behind Giovana at Te Rapa, rider David Walsh declaring he felt the in-foal mare did not appreciate being tightened for room on a couple of occasions.
This will almost certainly be Tall Poppy's last race and she could be at value odds.
Racing: Don't count Showella out
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