People were less optimistic about buying big-ticket items. Picture / Peter Meecham
A yawning gap is opening up between consumer and business confidence.
ANZ said consumer confidence dipped slightly in December for the third month in a row, but remained robust despite a cooling property market.
That's in stark contrast to last month's ANZ Business Outlook, which showed business confidence slumping to its lowest level since 2009.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey showed the current conditions index fell 1.3 points to 123.3, while the future conditions index fell 2.2 points to 120.9.
The bank's chief economist Sharon Zollner said consumer confidence was holding up "remarkably well" in the face of a slower housing market and increased uncertainty, with a strong labour market playing a part.
"Consumers are still feeling pretty sanguine," Zollner said.
"However, there is a hint of wariness in the responses to the forward-looking questions," she said.
"This is consistent with our belief that the economy is experiencing a bit of a lull as a number of growth drivers run out of puff around the same time - migration, housing, and construction in particular - and uncertainty weighs."
The bank's confidence composite gauge, which combines business and consumer sentiment, took a hit due mostly to the fall in business confidence.
"However, we believe the strong terms of trade and solid household income growth will carry the economy through," she said.
"Barring a negative hit from offshore, this business cycle has plenty of legs yet," she said.
Zollner said the gap between consumer and business confidence could be on perceptions that the new Labour-led government would be more relevant for consumers than for businesses.
"On the other hand, some of the new Government's policies will act to keep the housing market on ice, and consumers do tend feel good when house prices are going up," she said.
"We still think that the housing market will be a bit of a headwind for consumers because household debt is at record highs as a proportion of income, so if capital gains level out, as they seem broadly to have done, then that obviously [makes] you look at your debt a little bit differently," she said.
"It would be a mistake to underestimate the effect that the housing market has on consumers, but so far they look remarkably resilient ," she said.
ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley said the confidence gap opened up just before the election, becoming wider when the result of coalition talks became known in October.
Last month's Business Outlook showed business confidence was at its lowest ebb since 2009, just after the Global Financial Crisis when the country was only just emerging from recession.
"So we are a long way away from those levels when it comes to consumer confidence," he said.
Tuffley said business confidence levels tended to be lower under the previous Labour-led administration, despite some reasonable economic outcomes over that time.
He added a short-term dip in business confidence was to be expected just after an election while businesses adapted to new policy.
"But if we do see business confidence remaining low going into next year, then there is a greater risk the indecision among business does filter through into a weaker growth."
ANZ's Business Outlook for December is due out tomorrow.
Of the 1,002 respondents in the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey, a net 13 per cent saw good economic times in the coming 12 months, down from 18 per cent in November.
A net 22 per cent were upbeat over the coming five years, compared to 23 per cent a month earlier.
The survey showed a growing number of pessimists on the outlook for consumers' own financial state, with a net 14 per cent saying they were better off now than they were a year ago, down from 15 per cent in November, while a net 28 per cent predicted they would be better placed in 12 months' time, down from 29 per cent.
Respondents were slightly less optimistic about buying big-ticket items, with a net 32 per cent saying now was a good time to buy versus 34 per cent in November.