Kiwi dollar '20 pc overvalued,' say analysts

New Zealand runs a relatively high current-account deficit and its economy has a "fragile core," according to a London-based hedge fund manager.

A London-based hedge fund manager says New Zealand is like Ireland in 2007 and it's only a matter of time before the Kiwi dollar plunges, according to Bloomberg.

The financial news agency reported Stephen Jen, a partner at SLJ Macro Partners LLP and colleague Fatih Yimaz had released a note stating that while the "the case for kiwi seems compelling," the reality is "quite different."

"New Zealand has severe structural weaknesses that are very similar to those of crisis-hit Southern European and Southern emerging-market economies. Kiwi may be 20 percent overvalued," the pair said.

While it was easy to tell a good story for the Kiwi they analysts said they were not convinced.

"The economy has high growth, high terms of trade, and the currency is high-yielding. However, the case for kiwi is, in our view, much less persuasive."

They said New Zealand's economy resembles those in Europe and the emerging market just before they were engulfed by crisis - "a growth model based on debt and credit, low savings rates, and current-account deficits."

According to Bloomberg Ireland went from Celtic tiger to European debt-crisis victim, requesting a 67.5 billion-euro bailout in November 2010 when the near-collapse of its banks meant bond markets were shut to the country.

New Zealand runs a relatively high current-account deficit and its economy has a "fragile core," making it susceptible to external shocks such as slowing growth in China and the Federal Reserve's withdrawal of monetary stimulus, the analysts wrote.

The New Zealand dollar recently bought US83.63c from US83.77c at 8am.

This morning it slipped to A92.55c from A92.69 cents on Friday after hitting an eight year high of A95.3c last month.