MAYBE THE TAB's got this one just about right.
They can't see anything in today's AA Rewards Heartland Championship rugby match between the Pool B top teams at Cooks Gardens.
Although the coaches are doing their usual "underdog" grab, the public very clearly sees the match as North Otago's.
It's all a bit of fun, sorting out which team is favourite. Here's a summation:
1: North Otago's Mile Mullins (after Wanganui's win last year): "They came down and beat us last year and I think we take the underdog tag in because of that."
2: Wanganui coach Milton Haig: "They're the benchmark of the competition at the moment because they're the only unbeaten team. They can try to carry the underdog tag but it won't stick to them."
3: Telecom Virtualrugby competition (107,000 entries): North Otago win 84.8 percent; Wanganui win 14.8 percent (at noon Friday).
4: TAB odds head-to-head, Wanganui $1.90, North Otago $1.80.
So work that one out. This might help:
North Otago will almost certainly be without outstandingly mobile lock Seko Qaraniqio, who was bracketed on the Otago bench for their Air New Zealand Cup match this weekend.
Replacement lock Tau Tauhaafe did well against East Coast last week, but mightn't be the same force at this stage.
Even so, North Otago fields a physically large and bruising team and Wanganui's defence will have to be dedicated and be prepared to take a few knocks.
For example, outside of those large forwards, there are backs of size not the least right wing Stephen Sasagi, who weighs around 113kg and stands 1.93m. In fact North Otago had to get a special wingers' jersey for him because none of the usual were big enough.
One thing is certain, if the weather and showers predicted clear in time, there will be points and plenty of them. Against North Otago you have to work on having to beat 30-plus points to win. Wanganui appears the only team in this year's Heartland capable of that.
Haig makes the good point that while North Otago does score points, in past years they have tended to leak them as well.
But this year sees North Otago with the best defence in pool B, marginally ahead of Wanganui. This may say as much about the lack of attacking skills in the other teams. Only time will tell.
But from an attacking point, it's interesting that North Otago and Wanganui have only scored two tryscoring bonuses in their four games a suggestion these two teams are not as brilliant as in past years.
Wanganui is still trying to sort out an attacking back three, and has yet another new combination with Juan Visser at fullback and Asaeli Tikoirotuma back to start.
But former Taranaki player John Mow is bound to get good game time if okayed by the New Zealand Rugby Union in time.
ASSESSMENT: There'll be points, it'll probably be close, but maybe Wanganui is improving sharply enough at the right time to grab the win needed.
Plenty of points expected today
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