If Team New Zealand win the America's Cup, Australia will likely return to the event.
Writing in respected website SailingIllustrated.com, former Oracle boss Tom Ehman predicts the Kiwis' desire for a nationality rule for the Cup would tip the balance for the Aussies. John Bertrand, who skippered Australia II to a famous Cup victory over Dennis Conner in 1983 to end the New York Yacht Club's 132-year domination of the event, is tipped to re-enter the Cup fray.
The Kiwis have said that if they win the Cup, teams would have to have as much as 80 per cent of their crew from the country of origin. Design and build rules could also be tightened around nationality.
"It will cause Torbjorn Tornqvist to re-think his Artemis Racing program, as such a rule will make it difficult to challenge from Sweden (unless the event moves back to monohulls," said Ehman.
"Land Rover BAR will be happy with such a rule; it will strengthen Sir Ben Ainslie's hand with British sponsors and fans. Expect Ernesto Bertarelli to jump back into the AC fray as well, but with a Swiss Challenge?
"Nothing stops him from launching a challenge from another country, eg, France or Spain."
Ehman said Bertarelli had recently been elected to membership in the New York Yacht Club.
"If the Kiwis come up with a formula that truly makes campaigns more affordable than they are now, there could be another AC Renaissance like we saw after Australia II won the Cup in 1983."
There were 17 teams in Fremantle - four defenders and 13 challengers, six of which were from the USA. The size of the event made Conner's epic 1987 comeback that much more popular with fans all over the world, not just in the USA. The large number of teams, and the international flavour they imparted to Perth - often called the most-remote capital city in the world - is a prime reason why many call 1987 the best Cup in the modern era."
Emirates Team New Zealand is likely to bring the event back to Auckland in 2021 or as late as 2022.
"The venue will not be in the UAE as some have speculated. Indeed, it is not even clear that, given the world's present political situation and with all the complications presented by the Middle East, that Emirates Airline will be back as the Kiwis' title partner," said Ehman.
He speculated that racing could be held in the inner harbour, not the Hauraki Gulf.