New Zealand will end up smelling of roses in Rio's dodgy water.

That's the prediction from the giant American news agency Associated Press, whose comprehensive medal analysis says New Zealand will score a record 11 gold medals in the Olympic Games with eight coming in water sports.

The 1984 Games in Los Angeles provided New Zealand with its best gold medal haul of eight. The best overall medal count of 13 came four years later in Seoul and in the 2012 London Games.

Andrew Alderson: Where our medals could come from


If AP is right, those records will be obliterated in Rio with canoeist Lisa Carrington leading the way by winning two golds. It predicts New Zealand will claim five silver medals, and seven bronze.

The big calls: AP believes Valerie Adams is set to claim a third consecutive gold medal, but their crystal ball has rising shot put star Tom Walsh failing to make the podium. World number one Lydia Ko will finish second to American Stacy Lewis in the golf, while the New Zealand women will claim the rugby gold medal even though Australia has emerged as the dominant sevens team.

AP medal projector:

Gold (11)

Women's Shot Put - Valerie Adams

Women's K1 200m - Lisa Carrington

Women's K1 500m - Lisa Carrington

Cycling: Men's team sprint

Rowing: Single sculls - Mahe Drysdale

Rowing: Men's Pair - Hamish Bond and Eric Murray

Rowing: Women's Double sculls - Eve MacFarlane and Zoe Stevenson

Rowing: Women's Lightweight double sculls - Julia Edward and Sophie MacKenzie

Sailing: Men's 49er - Peter Burling-Blair Tuke

Sailing: Women's 470 - Jo Aleh-Polly Powrie

Rugby sevens: Women

Silver (5)
Rowing: Men's Double sculls - Christopher Harris and Robert Manson
Rugby sevens: Men
Cycling: Women's Individual Time Trial - Linda Villumsen
Cycling: Men's keirin - Eddie Dawkins
Women's golf - Lydia Ko

Bronze (7)
Equestrian: Team Eventing
Sailing: Finn - Josh Junior
Rowing: Men's Lightweight four
Rowing: Women's Single sculls - Emma Twigg
Rowing: Women's Pair - Rebecca Scown and Genevieve Behrent
Rowing: Women's eight
Sailing: 49er FX - Alexandra Maloney-Molly Meech