The forecast is suggesting northerlies, for much of the time. That means one of the bowlers will need to do plenty of toil into the breeze.
Given the talk around bowlers' workloads, and after having had to bowl for effectively eight successive sessions at Dunedin, coach Mike Hesson and fellow selector Bruce Edgar may want to juggle their resources, ie bring in Doug Bracewell for one of Wagner, Tim Southee or Trent Boult.
If they did, Wagner would be most vulnerable as Southee and Boult are seen as the new ball spearheads.
However unless there's a fitness issue, that would be a mistake. Bracewell has struggled to find his best form of late while Wagner is the sort who thrives on work and seems just the type to plug away in thankless causes. The Basin Reserve is well regarded as producing a pitch which will help the bowlers who are prepared to work hard, but is a friend to the batsmen as well.
Rotation is a policy not to be discarded out of hand, but this is New Zealand's best fast-medium trio, so, assuming there's no fitness issues, keep them intact for Wellington.