The Government now needs to inspire the public with clear strategy, says JOHN ARMSTRONG.
At long last, sanity has returned to New Zealand politics. And stability. Chalk that up for the Labour-Alliance Coalition, at least.
Here is a Government that does what it says it will do. Here is a Government that listens. Here is a Government that avoids secret agendas.
True, it has enjoyed the fiscal luxury of being able to afford things people like. On the other hand, it remains tight-fisted, knowing voters reserve special punishment for Labour Administrations that plunge the country into the red.
All that begs a question. Would this Government make the hard decisions in a crisis at the risk of jeopardising its electoral fortunes? The Coalition has yet to be tested on that score.
More fundamentally, it has not dragged the country out of its psychological trough. The sluggish economy has not helped. Praise for the Coalition's astute political management should not obscure its failure to inspire. Its academic mindset tends to assume the public understands what it is trying to do. The Prime Minister needs to paint the big picture - she wields the palette too infrequently.
But Helen Clark prefers straight-talking in the here and now to hazy visions of the future. A stickler for discipline, she exudes a toughness voters like, while carefully avoiding polarising public opinion against her. Which is why comparisons with Sir Robert Muldoon are bogus.
Clark judges that voters would prefer a period of political tedium to the turmoil of the 1990s. She believes her maxim of under-promising and over-delivering is the best route to a second term which will entrench her Coalition's moderate reforms beyond National's grasp.
Flowering in her early months as PM, she floated ideas on the political winds like confetti. But the winter resurrected the ghosts of one-term Labour governments. She has become more reserved, removing easy targets for opponents, particularly on Maori policy. This is now a very difficult Government to attack - and the Opposition is wilting for lack of ammo.
Labour's backside is also now firmly plonked in the vote-rich middle ground of NZ politics, long National's territory. And Helen Clark will not be budged easily. Jenny Shipley is thus struggling to establish her "points of difference." Except for one. When the pair go head-to-head, Clark keeps creaming her.
How the Coalition measures up:
THE ECONOMY: A mixed bag. Don Brash still pulls the levers. But the failure to woo business, a string of dreadful economic confidence surveys, an unspectacular Budget and the washout from the poorly promoted Employment Relations Act quickly consigned Michael Cullen to the category of Most Forgettable Finance Minister. The dollar is a basket-case - while interest rates, higher petrol prices and flow-on inflation are hitting voters in the pocket for the first time in a long time. The punt is now on an export-led recovery in the provinces flowing through to that political graveyard called Auckland. In contrast, Jim Anderton has kicked butt to get his Ministry of Economic Development up and running. But he has little cash and Labour's appetite for job-creating industry incentives is still weak.
HEALTH: Annette King is still blaming failures in public hospital systems on National - an excuse now past its use-by date. And she may not have enough extra money to make any big difference to surgery waiting times. The backlash against inserting Treaty of Waitangi clauses into health legislation has taken the gloss off the electorally popular return of district health boards.
SUPERANNUATION: The biggie. Long in gestation, Cullen's massive super fund was a turning point in the Government's post-winter fortunes - and his potential salvation. At last, Cullen had something to trumpet. He skittled critics through his encyclopaedic grasp of the subject - and, more importantly, forced other political parties either to sign up to his solution or offer something better.
EDUCATION: Out goes bulk funding; back comes school zoning. Trevor Mallard has kept this difficult portfolio out of the limelight, while peace has broken out at the universities through the tweaking of interest payments on student loans plus efforts to hold fees.
SOCIAL WELFARE: Labour promised little - but has swiftly fulfilled its pledge of income-related rents for state house tenants.
LAW AND ORDER: The left's traditional Achilles' heel. Phil "Lock 'em up" Goff finds himself locked in an odd double act with well-meaning prisons minister Matt Robson. But Goff is more right wing than some MPs in the National Party - and hard to outflank.
RACE RELATIONS: Helen Clark's Achilles' heel. Erred in being seen to take sides after Waitara shooting. Poorly explained treaty policy has nearly derailed Closing the Gaps policy to help poor Maori.
FOREIGN POLICY/DEFENCE: Media-savvy Goff produced textbook handling of the Fiji coup and strife in the Solomons. But his verbal barrage against George Speight should not be allowed to camouflage NZ's powerlessness - and its pragmatic preference for our neighbour to be stable first and a democracy second. And a radical shift in defence policy is raising questions about our commitment to regional security.
Moderation rules as Clark team learns ropes
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