Track conditions may decide the Melbourne Cup result.
That was a clear message after the Caulfield Cup.
Another very firm track like Saturday and Kaapstad Way can put his name forward for possible favouritism while many of his main dangers would be out of business.
They include the two English joint favourites Arctic
Owl and Far Cry, while well fancied Freemason, Streak and Bohemiath will all be looking for an easing of the ground.
The Bart Cummings-trained Ken's Joy broke down on Saturday and Kaapstad Way's trainer Chris Wood said he noticed several Cup runners walking short after the race.
The connections of Cup favourite Arctic Owl have declared they may not run the horse at all if the track is not rain-affected.
If Kaapstad Way had no real luck in the Caulfield Cup, fellow Kiwi Falls The Shadow was bereft of even a fraction of good fortune finishing fourth in the $A200,000 Norman Robinson Stakes.
He was never in a position to challenge after spending much of the race buried back along the inside running rail.
Even with the best passage possible, Falls The Shadow is not really suited to Caulfield and he will be a big chance in the Victoria Derby at Flemington on Saturday week.
John Ralph is keenly waiting on the results of a blood test on The Message after the in-form Kiwi dropped out in the closing stages to finish a distant sixth in the $A100,000 Coongy Handicap.
The Message trailed Brave Chief then drew alongside at the 550m. He was beaten on straightening and was clearly lengths off the form that won him the Kelt Capital Stakes.
Melbourne Cup market:
8-1 Far Cry. 10-1 Arctic Owl. 12-1 Bohemiath, Kaapstad Way, Oxford Dollar. 15-1 Diatribe, Enzeli, Freemason, Streak, Yippio. 20-1 Lightning Arrow, Mont Rocher, Second Coming, The Hind. 25-1 Citra's Prince, Coco Cobana, Fairway, Ken's Joy, Tie The Knot
