As the last major lead-up event before the great fillies' classic itself, the Group 3 Lowland Stakes is arguably the best guide we have in New Zealand racing to what might happen in the New Zealand Oaks two weeks later.
Often this one race is the moment of truth for those lucky enough to be associated with a promising filly - is their Oaks dream realistic, or is it just a bit beyond them? That and so many other Oaks questions are answered in the Lowland, as fillies' class and stamina are put to the test.
Three Lowland winners in the last 10 years have gone on to win the Oaks, including Midnight Oil last year, and 2010 Lowland runner-up Keep The Peace went one better in the Wellington classic. The 2012 Lowland is run at Hastings this afternoon, and it may decide Oaks favouritism.
The Lowland is often taken out by a late-developing star filly who announces her arrival at elite level with an outstanding performance here before doing the same thing in the Oaks at Trentham. Last year's winner, Midnight Oil, being the perfect example. One that might fit that bill this year is Quintessential. The Fast'n'Famous filly hasn't put a foot wrong all season, but she's only now getting the recognition and respect she deserves. She rose quietly through the grades early in the season before bursting to prominence with a lightning finish to win the Group 3 Desert Gold Stakes at Trentham. She proved that was no fluke with a strong third in the Group 2 Sir Tristram Fillies' Classic at Te Rapa. Her Oaks odds are shrinking every time she steps onto a racetrack, and another big performance here may take her close to outright favouritism.
Capital Diamond is overdue a winning turn. The Sir Patrick and Lady Hogan-owned filly has finished third in the 1000 Guineas, third in the Eulogy Stakes, second in the Desert Gold Stakes and second in the Sir Tristram Fillies' Classic. All of those runs were highly meritorious, and no one could possibly begrudge her victory here as she too builds towards the Oaks on March 17.