Bruce Bisset: Every vote counts

Bruce Bisset

Regardless of who ends up winning the election there is clearly a mood for change, driven in part by the so-called "youth-rush" of support for Labour which Jacinda Ardern's leadership has generated.

But in order to secure the win Labour needs more young voters to get on the roll and vote - and given that today is the last day to enrol, and there's as yet no significant blip favouring new enrolments, it's doubtful that rush will materialise into additional votes.

So, message to all under-35s: if you want change but you're not yet enrolled, rush out NOW and do it. You can vote at the same time, or tomorrow - but you won't be able to enrol tomorrow.

In fact, you can enrol online, in just a few minutes. So there's really no excuse. Just do it. Today.

For everyone else already on the roll, the message is even simpler: use your vote! It's the one time your voice is guaranteed to be counted.

And if this election is as close as all the pundits are suggesting, literally every vote could make the difference between one side or the other becoming our government.

That there is a mood for change, but that it's still too close to call, is a reflection of the topsy-turvy nature of this campaign.

We've seen Labour surge from nowhere just by changing leaders; the Greens almost sink from sight after losing one of theirs and then start to regroup; while NZ First surged but now has fallen away again. Still, any two or even all of those parties could be in government come Sunday.

That they could has seen National reacting with increasing desperation, spinning what even arch blue apologist Patrick Gower labels false information about fiscal holes and increased income taxes in a very negative campaign strategy.

Now they're apparently telling the people of Epsom not to support Act's David Seymour in favour of their own man - a sure sign this will go to the wire.

Relying on a Trumpian form of big lie may not be the smartest move for the Nats; I suspect Kiwis are less gullible than Americans in swallowing obvious porkies, and Bill English is not as adept at getting away with it as John Key was. But that remains to be seen.

One extra tax Labour has promised - a levy on commercial water use - may make some difference in the regions, but given a majority overall seem in favour of this move that difference should be slight.

True, it may impact the outcome down in the Wairarapa, where Kieran McAnulty was looking like having a chance of unseating Alastair Scott, but is less likely to work against Anna Lorck in Tukituki; I'd still rate her an even bet versus Lawrence Yule given the pipe-loads of credibility Yule has lost over tainted-water issues.

Stuart Nash should retain Napier with some ease, and Meka Whaitiri win Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Given Te Ururoa Flavell should keep his seat, expect Marama Fox back on the list for Maori too.

That's another party likely to be in government - in their case, whichever way the main vote goes.

Ideally a change vote will be strong enough to see Labour and the Greens the main coalition, because both are for positive change and will balance each other's policies. If National do squeak back in it will doubtless be with NZ First's help - a tired old man's choice that would make for three very uncomfortable years.

So there's all sorts of combinations that could result, but at base there's only one person who can determine it. And that, dear reader, is you.

*Bruce Bisset is a freelance writer and poet.