Golden Globes predictions 2016: Who will win? Who should?

Spotlight star Mark Ruffalo and director Tom McCarthy attend an Excellence In Cinema Pre-Golden Globe Celebration, as the film is tipped to win Best Motion Picture - Drama. Photo /Getty
Spotlight star Mark Ruffalo and director Tom McCarthy attend an Excellence In Cinema Pre-Golden Globe Celebration, as the film is tipped to win Best Motion Picture - Drama. Photo /Getty

At the Golden Globes, Hollywood Foreign Press Association will dole out honors to some of Hollywood's brightest stars - who will no doubt be slightly tipsy.

Who will win? We have some ideas. Who should win? We definitely have some ideas. And which winners would make the night much more interesting? Here are our predictions in the show's most interesting categories:


Best Motion Picture - Drama

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Will win: Spotlight Director Tom McCarthy was exacting in recreating the story of how the Boston Globe's investigative team uncovered an epidemic of sex abuse in the Catholic church.

The resulting film is both understated and entirely absorbing, proving that sometimes a good story - without any embellishment - is all you need to make a first-rate film.

Should win: Spotlight It's really that good. There's a reason the drama has gotten recognition from just about every group that hands out movie awards.

Dark horse: Mad Max: Fury Road George Miller's showy, post-apocalyptic action movie has been gaining steam coming into awards season, scoring accolades in unexpected places. Countless critics associations have deemed "Max" one of the best movies of the year, plus it beat out more traditional contenders, such as Carol and The Danish Girl, to earn a spot on the National Board of Review's best-of list.

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

The Big Short

Joy

The Martian

Spy

Trainwreck

Will win: The Big Short It was a bit of a shock that a movie about the financial crisis directed by a master of broad comedy - Adam McKay of Anchorman fame - dominated the Golden Globes nominations, but here we are.

The movie scored as many noms as awards-bait titles such as The Revenant and Steve Jobs, and why not? The script is fast and funny, the ensemble cast is star-studded (including Brad Pitt, Ryan Gosling and Steve Carell) and critics have hailed the accessible way it breaks down a very intricate issue.

Should win: Spy But wouldn't it be better if an actual comedy won the competition for a change? Melissa McCarthy's summer spy spoof was uproarious and charming with an expertly-chosen cast.

It was a delightful reminder of the way a great, funny movie can lift a viewer's mood in an era when there aren't a lot of bona fide comedies to choose from.

Dark horse: The Martian The light-hearted answer to Gravity was suspenseful, funny and gorgeous. And it was one of those rare films that critics went just as gaga for as audiences did.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Rooney Mara and Kate Blanchett in the Todd Haynes movie Carol.
Rooney Mara and Kate Blanchett in the Todd Haynes movie Carol.

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Rooney Mara, Carol

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Will win: Brie Larson, Room At 26, Larson is a veteran actress, though some may not know her name.

That's changing with this role, which required some seriously heavy lifting.

She plays a young woman who was kidnapped as a teenager and lives in a shed with the son of her captor.

Should win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl Tom Hooper's movie about the first person to undergo sexual reassignment surgery was supposed to be a showcase for Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne's superb acting talents. And it was.

But it certainly says something that Danish actress Vikander, who plays his character's devoted wife, nearly steals the show with her sensitive and commanding performance.

Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn Like Larson, Ronan was a child actress who has grown into an accomplished scene stealer.

She was already nominated for an Oscar, for Atonement, which came out when she was just 13. And she turns in a heart-wrenching portrait of an Irish woman who leaves her family behind and sets sail for the United States in the 1950s.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Smith, Concussion

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant. Talk about suffering for your art.

The things DiCaprio had to do for his role in Alejandro Iñárritu's frigid survival tale is the stuff of legend. Eating a raw bison liver? Check. Risking hypothermia on a daily basis? Yep. Getting tossed around to simulate a bear attack? Will someone just give this guy his award already?

Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant This isn't even a contest.

Dark horse: The only horse in this scenario is the dead one that DiCaprio's character had to cut open and climb inside to use as shelter.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Melissa McCarthy, Spy

Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Will win: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck 2015 was the year of Schumer, and the Hollywood Foreign Press will probably acknowledge that by giving the comedian the award. After all, she didn't just act in the edgy romantic comedy - she also wrote it.

Should win: Lily Tomlin, Grandma Tomlin is back on the map in a big way, between her memorable role in this arthouse movie and her turn opposite Jane Fonda on the Netflix series Grace and Frankie.

In Grandma, Tomlin plays an opinionated writer who is still struggling with the loss of her long-time partner when her granddaughter drops the bomb that she's pregnant and needs cash for an abortion. It's a meaty role and the Oscar nominee sinks her teeth into it like the pro she is.

Dark horse: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy. Since Jennifer Lawrence's roles in David O. Russell's movies are always awards worthy, why should her star turn in Joy be any different? Well, because Joy wasn't really that great of a movie.

At least Lawrence makes the most of her lines.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Matt Damon does a stellar job starring in The Martian.
Matt Damon does a stellar job starring in The Martian.

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Steve Carell, The Big Short

Matt Damon, The Martian

Al Pacino, Danny Collins

Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear

Will win: Matt Damon, The Martian The Oscar winner had his ups and downs in the last year, but one thing is certain: Everyone loved him as a good-natured astronaut stuck on the red planet in The Martian.

Should win: Al Pacino, Danny Collins. Not many people saw this movie, which is a shame, because Pacino is phenomenal as a Neil Diamond-like rock star whose life is changed by a letter from John Lennon that he receives decades after it was sent.

The movie's premise risks verging on maudlin at times, but Pacino (and the rest of a fantastic cast) bring it back down to earth without any of the over-the-top histrionics that have shown up in other recent Pacino performances.

Dark horse: Christian Bale, The Big Short. Bale always fully embraces his roles. He's method like that. And he's at it again, standing out in an impressive ensemble cast, playing a kooky, socially awkward hedge fun manager whose predictions about the impending financial crisis fall on deaf ears.

Best Director - Motion Picture

Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Will win: Ridley Scott, The Martian. This is the third time that Scott has been nominated for a Globe, and he has yet to win. Don't you think it's time? The HFPA very well may.

Should win: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight Compared to the competition, Spotlight seems so staid.

You've got one movie that takes place on Mars, and another that features acrobatic fight scenes during high-speed chases. But that's what makes McCarthy's work so remarkable.

He made a movie that was just as affecting without employing any flashy bells and whistles.

Dark horse: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road. Then again, all those bells and whistles were pretty spectacular.

Best Television Series - Drama

Empire (Fox)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

Mr. Robot (USA)

Narcos (Netflix)

Outlander (Starz)

Will win: Game of Thrones. Sure, the Globes deserve credit for calling attention to some less talked-about shows - but something tells us voters will go with what they know.

Should win: Mr. Robot The show took a familiar concept (hackers! terrifying technology!) and turned it into a vigilante thriller starring breakout star Rami Malek and no-longer-a-show-killer Christian Slater.

Dark horse: Empire There's a reason the Fox hip-hop epic has shattered ratings records.

Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical

Amy Landecker, left and Jeffrey Tambor appear in a scene from Transparent.
Amy Landecker, left and Jeffrey Tambor appear in a scene from Transparent.

Casual (Hulu)

Mozart in the Jungle (Amazon)

Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)

Silicon Valley (HBO)

Transparent (Amazon)

Veep (HBO)

Will win: Transparent Expect the groundbreaking series to take the prize for the second year in a row, especially because critics are even more impressed by Season 2.

Should win: Casual Acclaimed indie director Jason Reitman set the tone for this under-the-radar dark comedy, and impressive performances from Michaela Watson and Tommy Dewey (as a dysfunctional brother-sister pair) took it over the top.

Dark horse: Veep Never count out Julia-Louis Dreyfus and company at award season.

Best Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

American Crime (ABC)

American Horror Story: Hotel (FX)

Fargo (FX)

Flesh and Bone (Starz)

Wolf Hall (BBC)

Will win: Fargo Did you see the critical raves for Season 2? It's going to be Fargo.

Should win: Fargo Again - it will be Fargo.

Dark horse: Wolf Hall If we had to guess who would spoil anything, we would go with a PBS drama - but it shouldn't be much competition.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Drama

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Wagner Moura, Narcos

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Will win: Jon Hamm. The Globes are usually pretty forward-thinking when it comes to TV, but it seems natural to honor Hamm as a nod to the end of Mad Men.

Should win: Jon Hamm He crushed it in the final season.

Dark horse: Rami Malek If Mr. Robot (still a little-known show) was strong enough to get a best drama nod, newcomer Malek may also sneak in.


Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama

ABC's How to Get Away with Murder stars Viola Davis as Professor Annalise Keating.
ABC's How to Get Away with Murder stars Viola Davis as Professor Annalise Keating.

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander

Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder

Eva Green, Penny Dreadful

Taraji P. Henson, Empire

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Will win: Viola Davis. The show is a mess, but Davis is captivating. Plus, voters still likely remember her powerful Emmy Awards victory speech last fall.

Should win: Taraji P. Henson Sometimes the Globes don't take themselves too seriously - and it can't get campier than Empire.

Dark horse: Robin Wright She's an award show favorite, even if no one will admit they skipped House of Cards Season 3.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical

Aziz Ansari, Master of None

Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle

Rob Lowe, The Grinder

Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk

Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Will win: Jeffrey Tambor The more complex his character grows, the more accolades Tambor will receive.

Should win: Rob Lowe Maybe playing a narcissistic, semi-delusional actor isn't a huge stretch of Lowe's talents ... but his chemistry with co-lead Fred Savage carries the show.

Dark horse: Gael Garcia Bernal Bernal's classical-music comedy didn't get a ton of attention, but it obviously struck a chord with voters.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical

Rachel Bloom, My Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Jamie Lee Curtis, Scream Queens

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin

Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus Because doesn't she always?

Should win: Rachel Bloom. Globes voters love to award young, breakout actresses (see: Gina Rodriguez) and prove they know the CW is a thing.

Bloom is the standout of her oddball musical comedy, which she created and executive produces.

Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis Curtis clearly had the time of her life as an outrageously unethical (and murderous) college dean in Ryan Murphy's latest spectacle.

• We'll have all the action from the red carpet and beyond live on nzherald.co.nz from 10am.

- Washington Post

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