Liam Dann: End in sight for Auckland housing boom

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Has the Auckland property boom reached its peak? Photo / Doug Sherring
Has the Auckland property boom reached its peak? Photo / Doug Sherring

Yes it's a new record high and yes 12 per cent annual price growth in Auckland is still huge.

But the latest Real Estate Institute pricing statistics are good news for those who were hoping to see an end to Auckland's mad property boom.

It may small consolation for those saving for a first home, given the nominal prices continue to hit new highs, but the trend indicates Auckland is now a very different market to what it was a year or nine months ago.

READ MORE:
Auckland house prices nudge up just 0.5pc

Auckland prices were up just one per cent in July - not such a surprise given the sluggish winter selling season.

But that was the lowest rate of any region.

And compare today's annual growth of 12 per cent with the same period to July 2015 - you will see a 21 per cent increase from July 2014.

The annual growth rate peaked in the year to September 2015 at 25.4 per cent.
If the trend continues in this direction we might even see Auckland prices start to fall although that is clearly a very big "if".

The past nine months of data now include two separate regulatory shocks - first the introduction of the bright line test to tax capital gains on property sold within two years and now the beefing up of lending restrictions for investors - due to come into force in September.

There are concerns that the effects of these measures may be temporary. So certainly there is a risk that the growth rate picks up again in spring.

WATCH: Liam Dann and Anne Gibson discuss monthly housing data:

Video

Nationally the data tells a different story as the boom spreads through the regions.

But Auckland tends to lead the way.

Who would have picked it to be the lowest growth region a year ago?

This is a positive sign and the flattening trend will be a welcome relief for the politicians who are racing desperately to deal with the underlying housing supply issues that have really underpinned the housing crisis.

Property statistics:

- NZ Herald

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