House market restrictions could hit kiwi

The dollar could range between US67c and US70c. Picture / Brett Phibbs
The dollar could range between US67c and US70c. Picture / Brett Phibbs

The New Zealand dollar may decline this week on expectations the Reserve Bank could add further restrictions to the housing market, paving the way for future interest rate cuts.

The kiwi may trade between US67c and US70c, according to 11 currency analysts surveyed by BusinessDesk. Five expect it to decline, two bet it will gain and four say it will probably remain relatively neutral. It was trading at US68.41c yesterday.

The Reserve Bank's interest rate track has come sharply into focus after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark rate last week and slashed its outlook for future inflation, stoking speculation rates in Australia and New Zealand may fall further.

The RBNZ's six-monthly gauge of financial stability is due for release tomorrow, with analysts mulling the prospect for additional curbs on the bubbling housing market which may free up governor Graeme Wheeler to reduce rates further in the future.

"A move to tighten macro-prudential tools will clear the path for further rate cuts this year," ASB Bank economist Daniel Snowden said in a note.

ASB expects the RBNZ to cut rates in June and August.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Bill English delivers a pre-Budget speech to a Wellington Chamber of Commerce lunch on Thursday. The Government's financial statements for the nine months through March are published today.

- BusinessDesk

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