All the cards do not rest with Rio Tinto in the stalled negotiations over electricity contracts with the Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter, accounting firm WHK New Zealand's chief executive Phil Mulvey says.
"Rio Tinto has hived off its smelter assets into Pacific Aluminium ... If it shuts the plant, it is not worth anything."
It was in the interests of the Government to reach a deal because of the output of power coming from Manapouri, he said.
With 14 per cent of New Zealand's power used by the smelter, it would take 10 years or more of economic growth to soak up that capacity if it closed.
"That will affect the value of all generator companies in New Zealand, a lot of them owned by the Government," said Mr Mulvey, who is also deputy chairman of Invercargill-based PowerNet.