August in Whanganui was dripping wet but September has dried up fast.
The town got 146 per cent of its normal rainfall in August, Niwa climate scientist Petra Pearce said. In September the tables were turned, with 45 per cent less rain than the long term average.
The result is a near-normal soil moisture. Across the winter months of June, July and August there was 296mm of rain, 119 per cent of average.
Temperatures were slightly chillier than usual in Whanganui in September. The average was 0.6C below normal, perhaps due to the prevalence of cool southeast winds.
Across the island those southeasterlies brought massive rain to Hawke's Bay in early September, and Waiouru, Hunterville and Mangaweka got a good dump as well.
Snow fell on the central plateau, and the Desert Rd was closed on September 4.
New Zealand is probably heading for an El Nino weather pattern over the next six months, Pearce said.
El Nino, like its opposite La Nina, is a climate mode. It is centred on the Pacific Ocean and caused by changes in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
When the temperatures are warmer there's an El Nino, with more westerly air flow. For Whanganui it usually means buffeting westerlies, cooler temperatures and a bit more rain than usual.
But this El Nino could be different, Pearce said. It's not a strong one, and the weather could be changeable.
It will also be subject to influences rolling across from Australia, and influences from local sea surface temperatures.