The outlook for New Zealand red meat producers is looking "very positive" for the next 12 months says Blake Holgate.

Rabobank's animal proteins analyst spoke to The Country's Jamie Mackay about the bank's just-released Global Animal Protein Outlook 2020.

READ MORE:
African swine fever a 'huge risk' to New Zealand pork industry
African swine fever: New Zealand farmers urged to review biosecurity
African swine fever 'a real risk' say Canterbury farmers
Consumers face steeper meat prices as African Swine Fever bites

"Both beef and sheep meat - those fundamental market drivers that have driven prices to where they are now - we see them persisting for the next 12 months".

Advertisement

However, New Zealand's good news comes from other countries' misfortune said Holgate, as African swine fever continued to dominate "that whole global protein narrative".

Rabobank's analysis for 2020 found many parts of the world had increased protein production, but this "paled into insignificance" when compared to the ongoing losses from African swine fever.

Rabobank animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate. Photo / Supplied
Rabobank animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate. Photo / Supplied

"In 2019 we thought production for pork in China was down around 25 to 30 per cent. Well looking forward to 2020 we'd see an additional 10 to 15 per cent reduction below those levels again.

"So this is just creating a massive protein gap on the global market" said Holgate.

Listen below:

The protein gap left by pork was normally filled by poultry, seafood and beef, but Holgate reported that lamb was also being seen as an alternative.

"The price of pork is double in China now than what it was last year. It makes products like lamb - even some of the higher value cuts of lamb - comparatively more appealing for consumers".

Also in today's interview: Holgate talked about Brexit's potential effect on trade in New Zealand.