By JAMES GRAHAM
Takanini trainer David Metcalfe sometimes wishes there was a grade in between intermediate and progressive for She's So Cavalier.
Since clearing intermediate class at Avondale five starts back at the expense of early spring find Spherical, the four-year-old has come up a fraction short of making the next step up.
At first glance today's task at Avondale in the progressive 1400 doesn't look a whole lot easier, with open-class performers and a couple worthy of black-type events last season above her.
But look closer and there's three or four big factors that say Metcalfe's stable star can break through for her third win in her first campaign for the former rider.
First, most of her more favoured opponents are back from breaks, many of those are likely to be tripped up by a rain-affected track, and both the four-year-old mare's previous wins have come on the course.
For Metcalfe, however, one of the biggest bonuses of all is that he has Kelly Davidson back on board for the ride.
"I like using Kelly because she rides with confidence," said Metcalfe, who boasts wins aboard icons like Good Lord, March Legend, Silver Wraith and Soliloquy on his CV.
"All most owners want is a run for their money and with Kelly you know you're going to get that.
"Unfortunately you can't say that about a lot of jockeys out there today. If you ask me, they get their money too easy."
Meanwhile, the prospect of a soft Avondale track forced in-form Cambridge trainer Roger James to scratch most of his promising team.
That means no Dufresne, an easy last start winner at Te Teko, and the potential VRC Oaks winner in Holidazzle, who looked a near certainty in the intermediate 1600m after her unlucky last-start fourth.
James says the highly rated Flying Spur filly is instead likely to reappear at Flemington on Saturday, either in a 1600m or 1800m event as she prepares to chase valuable black-type and classic races in the next six weeks.
"I always thought she'd stand up to an Oaks preparation, it's just a shame we're going over there a run sooner than I'd anticipated," said James, who has saddled five winners in the last couple of weeks.
James says Live The Reality shouldn't be tripped up by the conditions today and rates the gelding a good each-way chance against She's So Cavalier.
He finished a close third to Wills in a 1050m Avondale trial a fortnight ago and is a past winner over the 1400m trip.
Yesterday' rival trainer Lance O'Sullivan wasn't keen on running Deebee Jean if the track slipped back to heavy at post time.
With conditions to suit, O'Sullivan said, Deebee Jean was forward enough to run a big race in her first since switching from Tony and Pam Gillies' stable.
But O'Sullivan isn't confident the promising stayer will be the one to give him his first victory in his new training role, despite having won fresh-up before.
"They can win over 1600m fresh-up as a maiden because they're just too good," said O'Sullivan. "It's a different story when they step up to progressive grade over 1400m, that's a distance short of her best so it won't be easy for her this time."
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.
Latest from Sport
Herald Hat-trick sports quiz: April 24
Can you go three for three and earn a hat-trick?