Don't be surprised if Coventina Bay returns with a win at Te Rapa tomorrow.
The outstanding mare is the $4.80 favourite for the open 1300m, but in her first start since a battling Queensland campaign in June, she won't be at her best.
Trainer Robbie Patterson admits that but says he wouldn't be surprised if Coventina Bay blew straight past her opponents in the hands of stable apprentice Ciel Butler.
"She had a good two months off after Queensland and she is still very much on the way up," says Patterson, who also has Puntura in the race.
"As they get older you naturally think they should need a run or two to come to their best, which she will. But these really good horses can fool you and even though she will get back in the field she can win."
Back-to-back frustrating campaigns in Queensland dulled Coventina Bay's lustre but her record in New Zealand is exceptional, including winning two Group 1s late last summer and finishing second to The Chosen One in another.
In her last 12 New Zealand starts, she has won six and finished second five times, her conquerors being The Chosen One, Imperatriz, Avantage, Group 1 winner Mascarpone and Banker's Choice, who won the A$500,000 Ballarat Cup last Saturday.
Coventina Bay sits alongside Levante and Imperatriz as our most proven gallopers, so tomorrow may come down to her fitness and luck in the running.
"She is fit enough to win with some luck," says Patterson.
"She had a jumpout with horses like Darci La Bella and Butler recently and was jogging alongside them."
Patterson says young apprentice Butler rides Coventina Bay in all her work, which is an advantage.
"She knows the horse so well and she has been riding really well, she rode three winners last weekend, so having Ciel on but still claiming 4kg is a huge help."
So how does Coventina Bay, down to 58kg with Butler's allowance, rate against her stablemate Puntura with 56.5kg?
"Puntura is a good horse and I would usually really like him in this race but when you think he only gets 1.5kg off the old mare she has to be our better chance," says Patterson.
The other mares such as Tevere and Dragon Queen are also talented enough to threaten.
But the race could ultimately hinge on whether Te Rapa improves out of the heavy range, which it should.
Those track conditions will also be crucial in the Group 3 feature of the day, the Eagle Stakes, where a drier track brings a class mare such as Cheaperthandivorce and Brando into play whereas something wetter will confuse the picture.