I've been betting on the Melbourne Cup for the last 16 years and in that time I've become an expert at picking a loser. Or to be more exact really good at failing to pick a winner.
And not just the winning horse, a winning bet. I haven't even picked a place. 15 years, hundreds of dollars, countless bets, not one punt bringing home a dividend.
So I'm passing on my lack of wisdom and the possible places where I'm going wrong in making my picks on race day. Follow these steps and you may have a better chance of winning money.
Every year I spend hours scanning the form chart, reading articles and studying up on each one of the horses in the field. How the horse has performed recently, the history of the jockey, previous form at Flemington, whether the horse had a good night sleep - all key to making my picks.
It's obviously never paid off. This year I'm just picking a name I like. Saves time.
Don't take time picking
During that research time at some point I'll consider putting money on every horse in the field. So when the winner crosses the line I'm left thinking 'Fiorente, yes I was going to put money on that one'. Never fails. Just pick one and stick with it.
Don't give advice
Since I'm the 'sports' guy in the office I often get asked for advice on Cup day. Due to my losing streak I'm aware of leading people in the wrong direction but a few years ago a couple of colleagues pushed me for a pick. I said Americain. They went with my tip and the horse went onto win. I of course didn't put money on Americain.
At least consider the favourite
I never pick the favourite because I consider it being the 'easy' option, plus a return of $1.80 on a $5 bet isn't that really worth it. But a favourite horse has won the Melbourne Cup 34 times out of 155 races, that's 22 percent of the time. 73 Cup favourites have finished in the first three placings. I'd take one win every five years over none in 15 years....and we've had just one favourite has won in the last 11 years. We're due for a favourite to win.
Don't pick the favourite
Or look at it this way...four out of five times that favourite doesn't win.
Don't go against history
In 2004 and 2005 I didn't pick Makybe Diva because I have that theory that's it's such a massive race that surely no horse can win it twice in a row, or even three times straight. I didn't back a back-to-back to go back-to-back-to-back. I was wrong.
Bet on the right race
I'm not that inept but it happens. Remember it's meeting seven, race seven.
Right horse, wrong bet
The only time I do pick one of the top three horses, it just happens to be in a trifecta where the two other horses finish well off the pace. Either box or avoid all trifectas.
Don't read Twitter
Everyone in the office is a racing expert on Melbourne Cup day and that continues onto Twitter where a large percentage of the people I follow feel the need to declare who they are backing. It fills my Twitter feed with a wide range of bets that sway my opinion.
Avoid barrier 18
Here's an actual fact you can take away. Barrier 18 has never produced a Melbourne Cup winner. So avoid Gallante.
...and don't pick Ventura Storm
Because I have $5 for a win. It took me two seconds to decide, and I'm sticking with it. If I'm true to form the horse will lead for a large chunk of the race before finishing at the back of the pack. That's a dead cert.
This article was originally published in 2012. The author has continued to bet on, and lose, the subsequent four runnings of the Melbourne Cup.