On The Punt is a new weekly betting column from one of New Zealand's most successful sports punters, Pistol Pete.
Back the Highlanders to keep it tight against the Crusaders in the first half in tonight's Super XV South Island derby at Orangetheory Stadium in Christchurch.
The Crusaders are massive 17-point favourites against the Highlanders after suffocating the Blues 25-8 at Eden Park last week, exactly the response coach Scott Robertson would have wanted after their loss to the Chiefs in week two.
The Highlanders, who themselves bounced back from a week-two loss by eking out a 23-22 win over the Brumbies in Canberra, won't be looking forward to meeting the perennial champions given their record against them.
You have to go back nine years for the last time the Highlanders won in Christchurch. Since then their record there is 0-5 with an average losing margin of 18.6 pts including crushing defeats in their last three visits.
Given those stats, you may be wondering why I'm recommending betting the Highlanders to cover the first-half spread of 8.5 which the TAB is offering, but it's the fact that the bet only covers the first 40 minutes which is the key.
Because despite getting smashed in each of their last three meetings in Christchurch, including the first round of the playoffs last year, the Highanders have managed to keep things very close in the first period before the Crusaders' class and perhaps superior fitness has told in the second.
They were down at halftime by eight in 2018 before eventually losing 45-22, actually led 17-14 at halftime in the corresponding fixture last year before going down 43-17, and trailed by the same score in their first-round playoff clash back in June before the Crusaders cruised to a 38-14 victory.
Take the Highlanders +8.5 points in the first half tonight to continue that trend, meaning they have to be behind by nine or more points for you to lose your bet.
RECOMMENDED BET: First Half, Highlanders +8.5 at 1.83
The playmaker from Guadalajara
The Mexican Magician, Ulises Davila, can get back to goal scoring form tonight and help the Phoenix to victory over Western United in their A-League clash at the Cake Tin.
Davila has been an absolute sensation for Ufuk Talay's side, scoring 10 goals in 17 matches and helping the Phoenix exceed most people's expectations by heading towards a seemingly inevitable playoff spot.
The playmaker from Guadalajara hasn't scored in his last two matches, an unusually subdued performance in a 4-2 loss in Perth being followed by an excellent one in a 1-0 win over Melbourne City at Eden Park.
Back at their normal home ground, however, take the 3.00 the TAB is offering for Davila to score in a Phoenix win.
That bet would already have cashed four times this season, whilst Davila also scored in the Phoenix's 3-1 win over Western United in Australia earlier in the season.
RECOMMENDED BET: Special. Davila to score and Phoenix to win at 3.00.