New political poll shows coalition Government trumping Opposition amid high NZ First support

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has had a rollercoaster ride in the polls this year. Photo / Michael Craig

• Support for the coalition Government parties is growing, with National at 36% and Act steady at 9%.
• Labour has dropped to 32%, while the Green Party remains at 10% and Te Pāti Māori at 3%.
• Christopher Luxon leads as preferred Prime Minister at 23%, with Chris Hipkins at 20%.

Support for the coalition Government parties is growing after polls earlier in the year suggested the Opposition was gaining momentum, new polling suggests.

The 1News Verian poll, released tonight, has National on 36%, up two percentage points compared to the outfit’s last poll in February. Act is steady on 9% while New Zealand First is up two points to 7, its highest result in the poll in nearly eight years.

Meanwhile, Labour has dropped 1 point to 32%, the Green Party remains steady on 10 and Te Pāti Māori has dropped 1 to 3%.

On those numbers, National, Act and NZ First would get 64 seats and be able to form a Government. The three Opposition parties could only compile 58 seats.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, National leader Christopher Luxon is up 1 point to 23%, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins has jumped 3 points to 20%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters has increased 2 points to 7%, while both Act’s David Seymour and Chlöe Swarbrick suffered poorer results.

One thousand people were surveyed between March 29 and April 2. The poll had a 3.1% margin of error.

As the Government announced its $12 billion plan for future defence investment today, the poll also found 39% of respondents support spending more on defence. About the same (38%) are unsure, while 23% disapprove.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Defence Minister Judith Collins during the post-Cabinet press conference today. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Two of the latest polls have shown an uptick in support for the three coalition parties after months of positive returns for the Opposition.

A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, conducted from March 29 to April 1, found National, Act and NZ First had enough support to form a Government, with the two minor parties up 2.3 points each to 10% and 7.4% respectively, when compared to the pollster’s last poll in early March. National was down slightly, falling 0.1 points to 33.5%.

Labour had fallen 4.3 points to 29.8%, while Te Pāti Māori dropped 2.2 points to 4.3%. The Green Party rose 1 point to 11%.

In preferred Prime Minister, Luxon had increased 1.6 points to 21.9%, overtaking Hipkins, who fell 1.8 points to 18.9%.

Peters rose a massive 4.2 points to 12.8% — the first time he had polled over 8%. Act leader David Seymour was also up, rising 3 points to 8%. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was on 4.2%, falling 0.6 points.

The poll followed a similar set of findings from the first RNZ-Reid Research Poll released this month that also gave the Government parties a slim lead over the Opposition.

Conducted from March 21 to 27, the poll found an election based on its data would return National, Act and NZ First to power with 62 seats out of 120, down from their existing 67 of 123.

Both polls fielded views from 1000 respondents and had the same 3.1% margin of error.

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.