Labour passes National, Chris Hipkins pips Christopher Luxon in latest bad poll for Government

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says New Zealanders are starting to see “progress” from the Government, however, the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows support flowing away from the ruling bloc and towards the Opposition.

The National leader put the shoddy poll results down to a difficult economic environment and said New Zealanders expected him to “focus and fix this thing”.

But the results also show Kiwis moving their support away from him personally and towards Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who has pipped Luxon as the preferred Prime Minister.

Hipkins says he isn’t taking anything for granted, but is “encouraged” by where the polls are sitting. He believes Luxon is only serving up “a string of slogans rather than solutions” and looking for others to blame when things go wrong.

The Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll released on Monday afternoon had National up 1.7 points to 33.6%, but Labour had moved past it, jumping 2.8 points to 34.1%.

The Greens fell 3.2 points to 10%, while Act declined 2.3 points to 7.7%. Te Pāti Māori rose 2.1 points to 6.5% and New Zealand First was down 1.3 points to 5.1%.

If the results are translated to seats in the House, both Labour and National are up three each to 42. The Greens are down four seats to 12, Act is down two to 10, NZ First is down two to six, and Te Pāti Māori is up two to eight.

That would mean the centre-left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 62 seats to the centre-right’s 58 and could form a centre-left Government.

This is the latest poll to show the centre-left in the dominant position. Both the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll and the 1News-Verian poll in February had the Opposition ahead.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (left) has been pipped by Labour leader Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister in the latest TPU-Curia poll. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Significantly for Luxon, the poll also has Hipkins overtaking him as the country’s preferred Prime Minister. Luxon dropped 0.4 points to 20.3%, while Hipkins rose 3.1 points to 20.7%. Act’s David Seymour fell to 5% (-1.4 points), NZ First leader Winston Peters was at 8.6% (up 0.6 points) and the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick dropped 4.1 points to 4.8%.

Hipkins has an overall net favourability of 4%, compared to -10% for Luxon.

Questioned about his poor results at today’s post-Cabinet press conference, the Prime Minister said it was a “tough time” for New Zealanders.

“Our job is to focus on what New Zealanders want, and that is all about us fixing the economy and making sure we get the money into Kiwis' back pockets.”

Luxon said he didn’t give the polls a lot of thought, but was instead interested in initiatives like the Government’s upcoming investment summit and his trip to India, where trade and security will be the main priorities.

When asked by the Herald why he isn’t personally getting traction with the public, Luxon said New Zealanders expected him to focus on the economy.

“New Zealanders are going to have an opportunity in 2026 to make a decision around Chris Hipkins or myself and our respective Governments. My job is to make sure New Zealanders see they are better off under my Government.”

The Prime Minister said New Zealanders were starting to see “progress” in the likes of law and order, but when the Herald highlighted that wasn’t translating into positive poll results, Luxon said there was “a lot of work ahead of us”.

“We have come through a very tough time. There are some green shoots that we are really encouraged about on the economy ... ultimately New Zealanders are going to judge me at the election in 2026 as to whether we have delivered for them on rebuilding the economy, restoring law and order, delivering better health and education.”

He said the Government would be “head down, tail up” to “improve the joint and realise the great potential that sits in this country”.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the Government was focused on improving the economy. New Zealand Herald photograph by Mark Mitchell.

But Labour’s Hipkins didn’t believe Kiwis are feeling they’re making progress under this Government. He said New Zealanders had “lost faith” the Government had any answers to the country’s challenges.

“I think what New Zealanders are used to seeing from Christopher Luxon now is a string of slogans rather than solutions, and a propensity to find someone to blame when things go wrong rather than accept responsibility and work on finding a solution.”

He referenced comments Luxon made in his press conference about India. When speaking about improving trade with India, Luxon repeatedly criticised Labour for not doing enough.

Hipkins said he wasn’t taking anything for granted with the poll results, but was “encouraged”.

“I said after the last election that we had a lot of work ahead of us to regain the trust and confidence of New Zealanders so that we could win the next election. We’re just under halfway through the parliamentary term now, and we’ve still got a lot more work to do.”

Labour leader Chris Hipkins is the preferred Prime Minister, according to the latest poll results. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The Government has faced a number of tricky issues over the past month, including the resignation of minister Andrew Bayly following what he described as “overbearing” behaviour towards a staff member and uproar over issues to do with the free school lunches programme.

Luxon himself faced scrutiny for his handling of the Bayly situation. There have been questions about why it took so long to inform the public of Bayly’s resignation, and criticism of the Prime Minister’s response to questions in a Mike Hosking interview on the matter.

During the interview, Luxon was repeatedly asked whether he would have sacked Bayly if he had not resigned. He avoided clearly answering the question until finally, after several minutes of interrogation, saying he would have. He admitted a day later that he doesn’t get his communication “right all the time”.

There were more questions about Bayly on Monday after it emerged that the Port Waikato MP was on leave during sitting time for Parliament to visit Mt Everest.

Luxon said it was a “significant” decision for Bayly to resign.

“It’s important that he has some time to clear his head and be back here next week doing his electorate work,” he said. “I think it’s appropriate that after a big decision like that, he’s allowed some time out.”

Labour last week revealed a caucus reshuffle centred around a “refreshed economic team”. It also moved a number of former ministers away from portfolios they held in government in order to give experience to other MPs and show the party had changed since its 2023 defeat.

National’s Chris Bishop responded to the reshuffle by saying Labour was just “reshuffling the deck chairs”.

“This is a team that failed in government, so simply reshuffling the same failed team that failed New Zealand in the past and giving them some new job titles is not a solution,” Bishop said.

The Prime Minister has attempted to drive a narrative this year that the Government is focused on “economic growth”. It has made a number of announcements in this area, including around improving tourism. This week, the Government will host a number of global banks and investment firms at a summit in Auckland.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday, March 2, and Tuesday, March 4, 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.

Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office.