By MIKE DILLON
Getting a manageable spread in attacking a $250,000 Pick Six is walking racing's sharpest knife edge.
Taking two horses in each race at $1 a time comes to $64, but at this time of year a two-way spread in six races is fraught with danger.
The chances of there not being an upset in any given six races is remote.
The price jumps up quickly - go to three horses a race and you are looking at $729 and six a race, well, you just don't want to know.
Even three a race does not guarantee too much at this time of the year.
So looking for a anchor or two becomes necessary for most people's budget and for a winter meeting at Te Rapa there seems an unusually high percentage chance of there being a couple in today's big Pick Six.
Revolution (No1, R10) is going to be everyone's natural choice as a special and he should get the money.
He looked shockingly uncomfortable in the Trentham glue when expected to be a certainty, but still ended up being second after looking likely to finish 32nd on the home bend.
And Danzapride, who beat him, is a real up and coming winter star. He has to lump 58kg in what will be extremely testing conditions and will not be helped by a couple of the lighter weighted chances using apprentice claims.
But class counts for a lot, even in the worst of conditions and Revolution has that and deserves to be rated very highly.
Van Winkle (No8, R7) is probably the best anchor. He looks a mudder with a real future and with 53.5kg they might struggle to beat him.
He narrowly missed topping Watch Officer at Tauranga two starts back and rider Lance O'Sullivan felt he would have been harder to beat had he ridden the horse further off the pace. He'll know exactly where to position him today and how to be coming at the leaders at the right time in the closing 250m.
Winning three from three on really bad winter tracks is a good trick if you can achieve it and Rich Call (No6, R5) is going to give it a good crack in the opening leg of Pick Six. The way he worked away from the opposition to score by three lengths at Pukekohe last start was even more impressive than the 19 lengths he won by on debut at Paeroa.
That Pukekohe effort showed a touch of something special and while in today's testing conditions the toughness of Regal Night (No3) and a couple of others will be hard to deny for a younger horse, Rich Call might have too much sheer ability for them.
So, you might like to manage two, or all three, of the above and play around with three or four in the other Pick Six legs.
Picking six winners on end at Te Rapa in mid-winter is getting towards Lotto odds - well, no, that's silly, that's 3 million to 1 plus odds, but it's heading in the right direction.
My Willie Montague (No1, R8) might be a fair chance of topping the favourite Talking Heads (No6) in the fourth Pick Six leg. Forget his last start failure on what was nearly a firm track at Ruakaka. His two wins have been on heavy tracks, one of them on this course, so he is in with a real shout this afternoon. Boschendal (No3) is close to a win.
Skybaby (No9, R9) faces a fair rise in class from the field she beat in maidens on her home track at Te Awamutu last start, but she's dour and that quality is going to take a few horses through to a win today.
This is possibly the toughest Pick Six leg, with only a couple for whom you could not make a winning case.
Peter Ward thought he'd had his last race ride early last Saturday morning, only to show up to win on Narghile Bay at Ellerslie. The Irishman could have another win on the same horse before he retires again in the opening race at Te Rapa today. Narghile Bay (No3, R1) is a one-paced stayer, who simply keeps going under pressure and that's the sort that will win in today's conditions.
That was a pretty good run for third from Oliverdance (No3, R9) at Trentham last start and he could get the money in the Levin Winter Cup at Otaki today.
He is one of the most improved handicappers around and in the heavy conditions he loves he will take plenty of beating in a slightly easier field.
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.
Latest from Sport
Phil Gifford: New Zealand rugby's troubles run deeper than TV or Silver Lake
OPINION: Rugby's battle for hearts and minds has been raging for at least two decades.