By MIKE DILLON
The two certainties of the weekend are looking shaky.
Flying Babe looked a put-and-take proposition in the $70,000 BNZ Matamata Breeders Stakes until the rain arrived yesterday and Giovana was always a popular choice for the $A200,000 St George Stakes at Caulfield in Melbourne.
It would be no surprise if both are strongly tested.
The Matamata track, which last night looked like bordering on heavy, could seriously test Flying Babe's brilliance and the Caulfield first-time bogey may well bring Giovana undone.
The Jillings/Yuill stable was almost certain last night it would leave Flying Babe in today's feature despite a track which might not suit.
" She managed a cutting out track when she won at Riccarton in November," said co-trainer Richard Yuill.
"Two-year-olds quite often handle bad ground when they won't as older horses. They are free runners and it's not as though she's learned too much to go against the ground."
Lance O'Sullivan rode Flying Babe when she destroyed the $500,000 Mercedes Super Bonus Classique field at Te Rapa and feels the filly may just cope today.
The fascinating feature of the race is that only Worthalot has soft or heavy track form, which was a third, four lengths away, behind Headliner at Tauranga on December 20.
Which almost puts it back on Flying Babe. The dashing Takanini filly was a great prospect at the $1.70 she was probably going to start at had it not rained, and she may well be value at the $2, perhaps plus, she will be showing now.
The danger could be Taranaki-trained Blackrock College who, against the odds, made up a huge amount of ground on Flying Babe at Te Rapa. She stayed a lot handier when she won on debut at Hastings at her previous start and if she does that this time, just might throw a tough finish at the favourite. On a rain-affected track the rest look impossible to sort out.
Aussies will probably push the likes of Diatribe and Gold Guru into favouritism for today's St George Stakes at Caulfield, but the New Zealanders still hold the flag.
If they ran in straight lanes, Giovana would be a $1.50 favourite, the damaging factor for the talented mare being the tricky Caulfield bend into the home straight.
She is a wind-up horse who needs plenty of space and will adore Flemington for the $A1.25 Australian Cup. How she copes with claustrophobic Caulfield for the first time eats into her tote value today. She is genuine and her class may see her manage it.
Don't forget Kaapstad Way has already won at Caulfield and may pose a huge threat. And don't dismiss fellow New Zealander Cent Home, who was lost coming around the Caulfield home turn for the first time last start, but who will have learned.
Race on wet tracks in winter and it's easy to find something that is suited. Different in February.
The recent impressive trials winners almost certaintly won't start.
One who will handle the conditions is Oliverdance (No2, R4), who has a record of two wins from three strarts on heavy tracks. He has not raced since Trentham in July, but John Wheeler always has his horses ready for these sorts of races. Arlanda (No3) is the only other runner who has won on rain-affected footing.
Wheeler has another runner in Lottery Prize (No2, R6), who has won in soft footing. He is also resuming from a spell and looked good in the spring. Fellow central districts runner Mr Kudos (No4) should manage the track.
Bawalaksana (No1, R8) and Hill Of Grace (No2) have won on soft or easy footing, but class can often get them there on tracks that do not suit. Wake Forest (No6) loves it wet and could be the danger.
Butterscotch (No12, R9) may be worth the risk on the track. Trainer Jim Gibbs has no idea how she will cope, but she is genuine and the outside barrier draw on her home track will be a big advantage. At something like $4 she is worth the chance.
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